Texas Tech faces incredibly difficult path to upsetting LSU due to worrying stat gap

Krista Gerlich and the Texas Tech Lady Raiders have accomplished quite a bit this season. Going from being a team that plenty of people were overlooking in the Big 12 back during the preseason to securing 26 wins and making a splash in the conference all season, there’s a ton that Texas Tech should be proud of from this season.

But if Texas Tech really wants to make this season something special, then beating the LSU Tigers in the NCAA women’s basketball tournament is a must. Unfortunately, that’s easier said than done. Especially when you start looking at some of the stat advantages that LSU has in this matchup that Texas Tech will have to work around. 

So much of this is going to be tricky for Texas Tech, a defensive-minded team that will be trying to slow down an offense that is averaging 95.1 points per game. The Tigers are beating folks left and right and have a +34.4 scoring margin.

That’s alarming and terrifying, folks.

LSU’s massive advantage in rebounding will be just one reason why beating the Tigers will be tough for the Texas Tech Lady Raiders

Texas Tech, meanwhile, is solid, but the Lady Raiders are scoring just 71.5 points per game and have a +13.6 scoring margin for the season. 

And that’s not where things are really alarming. 

LSU goes up and grabs 48.4 rebounds per game and has a +17.1 rebounding margin. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has an average of 34.6 rebounds per game and a -0.1 rebounding margin on the season. LSU has 578 offensive rebounds on the season. Texas Tech has just 335. 

That’s a concerning mismatch.

Texas Tech does have a noteworthy advantage in three-point shooting (at least in terms of volume). The Lady Raiders make 7.6 threes per game while making 34.5 percent of their shots from deep. LSU, meanwhile, makes 5.8 threes per game while shooting 37.7 percent from behind the three-point line. 

There is a theoretical path to winning for Texas Tech, but it’s going to be tough. The Lady Raiders get to try to slow down a frighteningly good offense and then make enough threes to offset the rebounding disparity. That’s tough.