In the NCAA Tournament, teams that have magical runs often get excellent contributions from their role players. Hopefully, that will be what we see from the Texas Tech basketball team beginning tonight.
We believe that the Red Raiders can count on solid contributions from its star players, JT Toppin, Chance McMillian, and Darrion Williams. That trio averages 46.6 points, 18.5 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game.
However, when the Red Raiders are at their best, other players join the party and play above their paper. Of course, having players take their games to new levels is essential this time of year.
We saw that happen in 2019 when Texas Tech reached the National Championship Game. That year, forward Norense Odiase had 14 points and 15 rebounds in a second-round win over Buffalo. Then, in the Elite 8, Tariq Owens went for nine points, seven rebounds, and three huge blocks (including one on a 3-point attempt to help seal the win) against Gonzaga. Of course, in the National Championship Game, Brandone Francis was spectacular with 17 points and four rebounds off the bench.
Who will step up like that this year for head coach Grant McCasland and his team? Let's look at three role players who will be X factors for Texas Tech in the NCAA Tournament.
Christian Anderson can't play like a freshman for Texas Tech
The only player in Texas Tech's eight-man rotation that has not appeared in the NCAA Tournament is true freshman guard, Christian Anderson. As the team's fourth-leading scorer (10.8 points per game), he has to do what he's done all season, put the nerves behind him and perform like a veteran.
This year, Anderson has been a boom-or-bust player. He's had 17 double-digit scoring games but he's also had seven games with six points or fewer.
In the games that he's gone for 15 or more points, Tech is 7-2. In those that he's gone for six or less, Tech is 3-4.
The good news is that in his last 11 games, he's scored in double figures nine times. During that time, he's averaging 13.8 points per game and shooting 42.5% from 3-point range.
Tonight, it is looking like starting guard Chance McMillian will not play (though no official word has come from Texas Tech as of the time this article was published). Therefore, Anderson will probably be in the starting lineup.
The last time he started for McMillian was in the semifinals of the Big 12 Tournament when he put up 19 points, two rebounds, and two assists against Arizona. That's the type of performance Tech needs from him throughout the NCAA Tournament, especially if he's going to be taking McMillian's place.
Texas Tech needs Federiko Federiko to simply be available and consistent
On the other end of the spectrum, Texas Tech doesn't need a ton of statistical production from backup big man Federiko Federiko, especially when it comes to scoring the ball. However, he will still need to play an important role for this team.
Toppin can't be asked to play 35 minutes or more per game over the course of this tournament. Thus, Federiko has to be able to give Tech some solid defensive minutes while Toppin rests. What's more, it would be nice for McCasland to have the luxury of playing his two post players at the same time, especially against teams with a size advantage.
The problem is that Federiko is foul-prone. This year, he averages 4.2 fouls per 40 minutes played. That's the most of any player in Tech's eight-man rotation. He absolutely must stay out of foul trouble in the Big Dance.
There is a stat called "Game Score" which measures a player's productivity for a single game across all statistical categories. A Game Score of 10.0 is considered average while one of 40.0 is outstanding.
Federkio has seven games with a Game Score of 10.0 or better this season. Included in those games are two performances against Arizona and one against Texas A&M. That proves Federiko is capable of stepping up against good teams. Hopefully, he will turn in his best efforts of the season moving forward.
Texas Tech needs Elijah Hawkins to be a reliable scorer
Finally, senior point guard Elijah Hawkins needs to give his team some scoring punch in the NCAA Tournament. That's going to be especially true if McMillian is not able to play.
This year, Hawkins' greatest offensive contribution has been the 6.4 assists per game that he's handed out. However, he has shown the ability to put the ball in the bucket at times.
Though he averages only 9.1 points per game, he has 14 double-digit scoring games. That includes a season-high of 22 at BYU in January.
In the games where Hawkins has scored 10 points or more, Tech is 11-3 thus far. And, in the games in which he's made three shots or more from beyond the 3-point line, the Red Raiders are 6-0.
Tech needs Hawkins to be on his game from 3-point range because other teams are likely to take their chances with him shooting the ball instead of giving outside looks to McMillian, Anderson, or Kerwin Walton. If Hawkins can cash in on his opportunities from deep, this team will be tough to beat.