Tonight, arguably the biggest Big 12 game of the season will take place in Lubbock as the No. 12 Texas Tech Red Raiders host the No. 22 Houston Cougars. It is the resumption of a rivalry that stretches back to 1951.
In the all-time series, Houston holds a slight 18-17-1 advantage. However, 14 of Houston's wins over Tech came prior to 1986.
Starting with the Red Raiders' 34-7 win in Lubbock in 1986, Tech is 13-4-1 in the last 18 editions of this series. That includes a current seven-game winning streak dating back to 2010.
That last time Houston won in the Hub City, the year was 1990, and Spike Dykes was only in his fourth season as Texas Tech head coach. The hope is that Tech's dominance over the Cougars will continue this evening, and if it does, the home team needs to be solid in these statistical categories.
Texas Tech must control the Houston ground game
After the Oregon State Beavers carved up Texas Tech's secondary for 417 yards a week ago, many Red Raider fans have been concerned about their team's ability to hold up against Houston's passing attack. However, the real test tonight will be Houston's ground game.
This year, the Cougars rank seventh in the NCAA in rushing yards per game at 308.0. In each of their first two games, they've racked up 228 or more yards on the ground.
Now, two games is not a huge sample size, and one of those games was against FCS opponent Southern (against whom the Cougars ran for 388 yards). Still, though, Houston is going to put the Red Raiders' front seven to the test.
The Cougars feature preseason All-Big 12 left guard Shadre Hurst (a potential All-American) and standout center Anthony Boswell along the interior of their offensive line. They will go up against Tech's stellar defensive tackle rotation, headlined by preseason Big 12 Defensive Player of the. Year A.J. Holmes Jr. and Mateen Ibirogba.
Houston's top running back Makhi Hughes averages 5.7 yards per carry so far. If that continues tonight, Tech will be in big trouble. However, if the Red Raider defense can keep Houston to around 150 yards on the ground, it will bode well for their chances of securing the win.
Texas Tech needs to have several chunk plays
In 2025, the Texas Tech offense was as explosive as just about any in the nation, ranking third in America with 93 plays of 20 or more yards. That hasn't been the story in 2026, though.
Thus far, Tech has registered only six plays that went for 20+ yards. That's good for only 111th nationally.
Meanwhile, Houston's defense has given up only seven plays of 20 yards or more through two games. Now, it must be noted that Oregon State racked up five 20+-yard plays against Houston in week one, so the Cougar defense isn't infallible.
Still, Tech will need to be more aggressive and explosive on offense this week, especially in the passing game. That's been a talking point for Joey McGuire this week, so the hope is that the offense will take some shots.
If the Red Raiders can have five or more 20-yard plays, with a couple going to the house, it will bode well for the home team. But if the same old stale offense that we saw in Corvallis returns, Tech could struggle to put up points on the Cougars.
Tech must get to its goal of three turnovers
It doesn't take a football savant to understand the importance of taking the ball away in a key game. However, that aspect of this game might be even more important than usual given how evenly matched these two teams appear to be.
Texas Tech has yet to come close to its weekly goal of three takeaways. In fact, this season, the defense has generated just two in total. That needs to change tonight.
The difference in last year's 35-11 Texas Tech victory over Houston was turnovers. Tech took the ball away three times, leading to ten critical Red Raider points.
Playing at home should help the Red Raiders in their quest to take the ball away. A deafening Lubbock crowd could hamper Houston's communication efforts, especially considering that this is the Cougars' first road game of the year.
This year, Tech is still trying to find its defensive playmakers, especially with 2025 turnover leader Jacob Rodriguez now in the NFL. Tonight, someone has to step up and have a Rodriguez-like performance for the home team to tilt this critical component of the game in Tech's favor.
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