Entering the NCAA Tournament, had Texas Tech basketball fans known that their team would have to beat only a No. 14 and a No. 11 seed to reach the Sweet 16, everyone in Scarlet and Black would have signed up for such a scenario. That's what has transpired with Tech beating No. 14 seed UNCW on Thursday and now facing No. 11 seed Drake, which upset No. 6 seed Missouri in round one.
Had Missouri been today's opponent in Wichita, Kansas, this would have been a pseudo road game given that their campus is only 4.5 hours from Wichita, and Kansas City, home to thousands of Missouri fans and alums, is only about 2.5 hours away.
Still, this might be a partizan Drake crowd tonight because the Houston and Gonzaga fans who will be waiting for their teams to play the nightcap, will likely be rooting for the double-digit seed to pull off another upset. But is Drake truly a threat to take down another good team from a power conference? Let's take a closer look at the Bulldogs to see what challenges they might pose and where they might be vulnerable.
Texas Tech should have an edge at the free-throw line
If this game is close and low-scoring, the free-throw line could come into play. That would likely be good news for the Red Raiders because Drake is a poor free-throw shooting team.
For the season, Drake has shot only 69.9% as a team from the line. That is 257th in the nation.
In the first round, free throws could have doomed the Bulldogs had Missouri made that game tighter down the stretch. The Bulldogs were only 12-24 at the line on Thursday while Missouri was 23-26. Still, Drake overcame that deficit to win by ten points.
Now, Drake survives because their top four scorers each shoot over 70% from the stripe. However, after that, four of their five other players who average nine or more minutes per game shoot below 70% while three of them shoot 50% or below.
Usually, Tech is an above-average free-throw shooting team and that needs to be the case tonight to give the Red Raiders a critical edge in that component of the game. If this game is close down the stretch, it will be interesting to see if the Bulldogs have what it takes as a team to make critical free throws under pressure and pull off the upset.
Texas Tech won't have a size disadvantage against Drake
Tonight, Texas Tech will actually have an advantage in the post because Drake is a small team. In fact, no one in their regular rotation is over 6-foot-8.
Drake is a guard-heavy team and they do have length on the perimeter, which helps them play strong defense away from the bucket. However, Big 12 Player of the Year, JT Toppin could have a big game down low.
Of the nine players that Drake typically relies on, only three are forwards. Daniel Abreu is 6-foot-6, 220 pounds. Cam Manyawu is 6-foot-8, 228 pounds. Nate Ferguson is 6-foot-8, 220 pounds. That's all the size that Drake features.
This does not need to be a game where Tech launches 46 shots from beyond the arc again as they did in round one. Rather, Toppin and Darrion Williams should get paint touches as often as possible because they should be able to take advantage of a smaller Drake roster.
Texas Tech might have to be more selective from deep against Drake
Another reason that Tech should be less prone to firing away from deep is the fact that Drake is extremely effective at limiting its opponent's 3-point shooting. In fact, by giving up only 30.8% shooting from 3-point range to opponents, Drake rates 36th in the country.
Missouri shot only 25% (4-16) from deep in round one against Drake. Meanwhile, earlier this year, Miami made only 38.1% (8-21) of their 3s against the Bulldogs. Similarly, Kansas State was only 33.3% (7-21) from 3-point range in a loss to Drake. Even NCAA Tournament team Vanderbilt was only 19% (4-21) when they lost to the Bulldogs this season.
However, in the rare instances when Drake has lost a game this year, the opponents have had some success from downtown. UIC was 8-17 (47.1%) against them in a four-point win over the Bulldogs. A game later, Murray State was 7-15 (46.7%) as they beat Drake. Later, Bradley was 7-17 (41.2%) in a two-point triumph over the Bulldogs. Those are the only three games Drake has lost and in all three, the opposition was not prolific from deep but instead, efficiency was the name of the game.
Does Tech have the discipline to be more selective from the outside today? If so, that could be the key to a victory for the Red Raiders.
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