There is no doubt that the Texas Tech basketball team has one of the highest ceilings of any team in the NCAA Tournament. That's why all of the analytical models have rated so highly of the Red Raiders for most of this season.
Tech enters this week's NCAA Tournament at No. 7 in the NCAA NET Rankings as well as the KenPom.com rankings. However, it isn't just the computer models that should give Texas Tech fans confidence in this team.
What has transpired on the court this season is further proof that the Red Raiders are capable of making plenty of noise over the next three weeks.
This year, Tech is 13-8 in games against Quad-1 or Quad-2 opponents. What's more, Tech has 10 wins over Quad-1 opponents. Of those ten wins, seven came on the road proving that this team didn't just build its resume on the strength of having one of the best home environments in the country.
Of course, Tech also owns one of the best wins that any team in America has managed to collect this season. On February 1, the Red Raiders went to Houston and handed the Cougars their only Big 12 loss of the season. Of course, they did so only after star forward JT Toppin and head coach Grant McCasland were ejected from the game only four minutes into the first half.
Houston enters the tournament ranked third in the NET and seeded as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region. Thus, Tech fans know that if this team can win in Houston, it can beat any team in the country on a neutral floor.
With all of that said, though, the Red Raiders will have to play their best basketball if they are going to rattle off six wins in a row over the next three weekends. What's more, there is always a randomness to the NCAA Tournament when one bad game by a favorite or one out-of-character performance by an underdog can turn everything upside down. That's why many people think that the NCAA Tournament is the best sporting event on the calendar.
Tech enters this week knowing that it can get to San Antonio. But there is always the fear that the unexpected could derail those plans in the blink of an eye. So let's look a three things that could spell doom for the Red Raiders in any round of the tournament.
Cold shooting from 3-point range would doom Texas Tech
There is no question about what makes the Red Raiders one of the best offensive teams in the country. This team has a dominant inside scorer in Toppin and a host of dangerous 3-point shooters playing around him. That makes it difficult for teams to take away everything Tech wants to do with the ball.
Tech ranks 20th nationally in both 3-point makes per game (10.2) and 3-point shooting percentage 37.9%). Almost 36% of the Red Raiders' made field goals on the season have been 3-pointers. So what happens if they have a bad day from outside in the tournament? It could be the end of the season.
This year, Tech has had several games where the 3s just haven't fallen like they normally do. In a 78-77 early-season loss to Saint Joe's, Tech was just 4-20 (20%) from deep. In the puzzling 87-83 loss to UCF to open Big 12 play, the Red Raiders were just 3-16 (18.8%). Similarly, in the 69-61 home loss to Houston, Tech was just 6-30 (20%).
Hopefully, this team has gotten all of those types of shooting performances out of its system because it only takes on such game to end a tournament run.
Texas Tech can't have continued injury woes
It is rather remarkable that Tech has been as successful as it has this year given all of the injuries this team has had to fight through. While there hasn't been a disastrous injury to any key member of the rotation (other than backup forward Devin Cambridge who left the team early in the season when his surgically repaired knee gave him more issues), there have been several Red Raiders who have had to play through nagging injuries.
This year, JT Toppin missed a month with a lower leg injury. Darrion Williams has played through multiple ankle sprains for most of 2025 and even missed a couple of games as a result. Chance McMillilan has had a foot injury and now is dealing with an upper-body injury that kept him out of the Big 12 Tournament semifinal game against Arizona. Federkio Federkio has dealt with a shoulder injury that has forced him to wear a brace for several weeks.
Outside of Toppin (who appears to be at full strength), those other injuries are still causing problems as the NCAA Tournament tips off and they won't be fully healed until after the season. If one of those issues flares up again, or a new injury rears its ugly head, Tech could be in trouble.
This isn't the deepest team with only eight men in the rotation. Therefore, there is little room for an injury.
Unfortunately, Tech has seen injuries play a role in the NCAA Tournament in recent years. No one will forget that in 2019, starting center Tariq Owens sprained his ankle in the Final Four and was limited to just a few minutes in the National Championship Game two days later.
Then, just last season, Tech had to ask starting big man Warren Washington to rush back from a foot injury that kept him out for over a month just to play in the first round. Also in last year's first-round loss to N.C. State, Darrion Williams was not at full strength after suffering an injury in the Big 12 Tournament.
So hope for good luck on the injury front over the next several weeks because Tech already enters this tournament banged up and another injury could be what ultimately spells doom.
Foul trouble in the post might wreck Texas Tech
Finally, this team must find a way to stay out of foul trouble, especially in the post. That might be the biggest key to a long run in the Big Dance.
This team has only two players in the rotation over 6-foot-7, Toppin and Federiko. Both have to be available, especially if the Red Raiders run into a team with elite size.
Fortunately, Toppin and Federiko averaged just 2.3 and 2.1 personal fouls per game respectively. Toppin has fouled out only once this season and picked up four fouls on only three other occasions. Interestingly, in those four games, Tech managed to go 3-1.
Meanwhile, Federiko has fouled out twice and picked up four fouls in five other games. That's despite the fact that he averages only 19.8 minutes per game.
He is prone to being called for fouls averaging 4.2 per every 40 minutes played. However, he must find a way to stay out of foul trouble in the tournament so that he can give Toppin some rest and so that McCasland can deploy a bigger lineup with both Federiko and Toppin on the court together if needed.
In the NCAA Tournament, officiating tends to even out given that all games are played on a neutral court thus lessening the impact a crowd can have on the referees. Still, Tech has to stay out of foul trouble in the post if this season is going to end with another long run in the tournament.