Week 9 2024 12-team College Football Playoff projection: A week with no upsets
After several weeks of chaos in the college football world, we had a relatively quiet weekend this past Friday and Saturday. In fact, there were no truly shocking upsets that rocked the college football world.
Only one ranked team fell to a lower-ranked team in week nine. What's more, that game wasn't really an upset as No. 8 LSU was not favored to win on the road at No. 14 Texas A&M. Therefore, the fact that the Aggies pulled off a 38-23 win at home didn't really send shockwaves through the sport.
We did have some close calls by playoff contenders, though. For instance, No. 4 Ohio State had to fend off a feisty Nebraska team in Columbus. In fact, the Cornhuskers had the ball late in the fourth quarter with a chance to win the game but they couldn't drive the field for one final touchdown as they fell 21-17.
Meanwhile, No. 3 Penn State led Wisconsin just 14-13 on the road to begin the fourth quarter. However, the Nittany Lions would prevail 28-13 thanks to two unanswered touchdowns in the final quarter.
No. 5 Texas kept No. 25 Vanderbilt at arm's length for the entire game on Saturday. A final-minute Vandy TD cut the final margin to 27-24 making the final score very respectable for the Commodores.
Ranked No. 16, Kansas State had to fight its tail off to beat rival Kansas 29-27. In fact, it took a 51-yard field goal in the final two minutes to lift KSU over the 2-6 Jayhawks.
So how did a week of close calls but no upsets change our College Football Playoff projection? Let's take a look.
Rank | Team | Bid | Previous Rank |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Oregon | Big Ten Champ | 1 |
2 | Georgia | SEC Champ | 2 |
3 | Clemson | ACC Champ | 3 |
4 | Iowa State | Big 12 Champ | 4 |
5 | Texas | At-large | 5 |
6 | Ohio State | At-large | 6 |
7 | Penn State | At-large | 7 |
8 | Tennessee | At-large | 8 |
9 | Miami | At-large | 10 |
10 | Notre Dame | At-large | 11 |
11 | BYU | At-large | N/A |
12 | Boise St. | MWC Champ | 12 |
This week, many will have Texas A&M in their projected field and that's understandable given that the Aggies are now 7-1 on the season and ranked 10th in the newest poll. However, as a died-in-the-wool Red Raider, I just can't bring myself to give A&M its full due. Plus, I don't see the Aggies beating Texas in the last game of the regular season and a two-loss Aggie team that doesn't play for the SEC title likely won't be in the playoff field.
BYU sneaks into my projection this week. The Cougars do not play another ranked team in the regular season so they seem destined to head into the Big 12 Championship Game undefeated. Even if they lose that game, they likely would have done enough to earn a bid.
Also, Indiana is deserving of an at-large bid at the moment but there just isn't room for them in the field right now. They are the first team left out but they will get their shot to prove their worthiness when they play at Ohio State on November 23. If they win that game, they'll almost certainly head to the Big Ten title game and secure a playoff spot.
This coming week will have some huge games including Ohio State at Penn State, Oregon at Michigan, Florida and Georgia on a neutral field, Clemson at Louisville, and a game that could be massive in the ACC race, No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU.
So check in next week to see how the playoff field shifts. What's more, on Tuesday of next week, we will get our first official playoff rankings from the selection committee and that will certainly spark some heated debate around the nation.