Today in Cincinnati could have been an epic hatefest. After all, this was supposed to be the Brendan Sorsby Bowl pitting Texas Tech against the Cincinnati Bearcats. Of course, fate intervened, and now the matchup is just another Big 12 game.
That doesn't mean that it doesn't hold importance for the No. 8 Red Raiders, though. Tech still has a ton to play for this season and needs to stay perfect in Big 12 play to continue its march toward another College Football Playoff birth.
Some people believe that the Red Raiders should be on upset alert today. However, the ESPN.com Matchup Predictor gives Tech an 83.1% chance of prevailing. So let's look at what head coach Joey McGuire needs to see his team do to avoid a letdown and stay perfect on the season.
Texas Tech needs to make Cincinnati throw the ball
By now, most Texas Tech fans know that Cincinnati prefers to run the ball. In fact, the Bearcats average over 12 more rushing attempts than passing attempts per game.
That's why Tech has to do everything it can to make the Bearcats have to throw the ball to win. That can be done in two different ways.
First, Tech can sell out to shut down the Cincy ground game. The Red Raiders rank 17th nationally in run defense at only 91.4 yards per game allowed. If they can bottle up the Bearcats' running backs, then it will make Cincy uncomfortable on offense.
Second, Tech can find a way to get out to a multiple-score lead. If that happens, Cincy might feel like they have no choice but to air it out.
This year, Cincinnati QB JC French IV has averaged just 25.5 passes per game. What's more, his average yards gained per attempt is only 8.7. That suggests that the Bearcats are not built to win a shootout in which he has to win the game with his arm. So Tech would be smart to push the pace and try to turn this game into a track meet to get the Bearcats out of their game plan.
Texas Tech needs to trust Will Hammond to win this game early
For much of this season, it has felt like Texas Tech has kept the reins tight on QB Will Hammond. Even when he's played well, Tech hasn't asked him to take over a game with his arm.
So far, the most passing attempts he's had in a game is 33, which came in the season opener against Abilene Christian. Today's matchup sets up for a potential career day for Hammond, though.
Cincinnati ranks 136th nationally in passing yards allowed per game (294.0), and they give up 12.6 yards per completion. What's more, in their last game, West Virginia threw for 464 yards against them.
If Tech wants to jump out to a big lead, the recipe might be to let Hammond and the passing attack get hot early to build up a healthy margin. Then, Tech could allow the ground game to shorten the clock in the second half.
It feels as if this might be the perfect day for Hammond to have his first 300-yard passing day of the season. Last week, he was terrific in the first half as Tech built a 33-point lead on Arizona State, and today, the plan should be to let him make his mark on this game right out of the gates as well.
Texas Tech can't help Cinicinnat by making critical mistakes
Finally, Texas Tech must avoid sloppy mistakes. That's because the Bearcats are the less talented team, meaning they will probably need some help from the Red Raiders if they are going to spring the upset.
When it comes to turnovers, Cincy has been good this season. They rank first in the Big 12 and 14th nationally in turnover margin by averaging 0.83 more takeaways than giveaways per game.
In fact, they've only turned the ball over twice all year, two fumbles. On the other hand, they don't take the ball away often, with only seven on the season.
The good news is that in the last two games, Tech has cut down on its giveaways by committing only one total. That needs to continue today.
Another area where mistakes are evident is penalties. This is where Tech needs to let Cincy destroy themselves.
The Bearcats rank 96th in America in terms of fewest penalties per game at 7.3. On average, they are assessed 63.5 penalty yards per game, which is the fifth-most in the conference.
Tech has been good in that department. Tech is averaging just 5.4 penalties per game, which ranks 41st overall.
Playing on the road always seems to increase the likelihood of mistakes and sloppy play. However, Tech has been better of late when it comes to reducing mistakes. If they can hold on to the ball and avoid sloppy plays, they should be able to outclass the Bearcats today.
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