Today in Lubbock, one of the most lopsided series in the Big 12 will resume when 6-1 Texas Tech hosts 6-1 Arizona in a massive conference showdown. The winner will stay alive in the race for a birth in the league title game, while the loser will be all but eliminated.
All-time, the Red Raiders have dominated the Wildcats. Tech leads the series 27-5-2. What's more, to find the last time Arizona won in Lubbock, you have to go back to November of 1935.
Today's meeting will be the first between these two teams on the South Plains since 1989. The schools were supposed to meet in a non-conference game in Lubbock in 2020, but that game was cancelled when the PAC-12 went to a conference-only schedule due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
This year, the Wildcats are 3-1 in Big 12 action. They have won their last five games after falling at BYU 28-17 in the second game of the season.
What might scare Texas Tech fans most is the fact that Arizona beat Cincinnati 34-7 three games ago. Of course, last week, the Red Raiders were on the painful end of a blowout in Cincinnati, so confidence might be shaky among the Tech faithful.
This is a game that will headline this week's Big 12 schedule. It is the only meeting of ranked teams on the conference slate today, so all eyes will be on Lubbock. With that in mind, let's take a look at what the Red Raiders need to do to ensure they get back to their winning ways.
Texas Tech must solve its red-zone woes
Given that Arizona has one of the best offenses in the FBS, Texas Tech can't expect the defense to do all the heavy lifting today. The offense must pull its weight, and one way to do that is to get back to converting in the red zone.
Over the past three games, Tech has struggled to get the ball into the end zone when crossing the opponent's 20. Against Colorado, Arizona State, and Cincinnati, the first-team offense has scored just five touchdowns on 13 red-zone trips. That's just 38.4%.
Meanwhile, Arizona is the best team in the Big 12 in terms of keeping teams off the scoreboard in the red zone. They are allowing scores on just 66.7% of their defensive red-zone possessions.
Today, Texas Tech is expected to get backup QB Thomas Castellanos in the game after he didn't play at all against Cincy. Hopefully, he will be able to breathe life into the red-zone offense because Tech can't settle for three points very often against a team that puts up as many points as Arizona does.
Texas Tech must find a way to pressure the QB
Every week, getting pressure on the quarterback is critical. However, when facing Arizona, it is even more essential.
This year, the Wildcats rank 36th nationally in passing attempts per game at 33.7. What's more, they are eighth nationally in passing yards per game at 310.9.
Leading their offense is fifth-year QB Noah Fifita. He's as wily as they come, and he's seen just about everything the college game can present.
This year, he's completing over 74% of his passes while averaging 9.2 yards per completion. If Texas Tech lets him have time in the pocket, he will make the defense pay.
Tech is averaging 2.2 sacks per game against Big 12 teams. Today, though, it won't be just about the sacks.
Tech must hurry Fifita with a disciplined rush that doesn't allow him easy escape routes. The rush can't come just from interior defensive linemen like AJ Holmes. Rather, it must be a collapsing pocket from all sides so that Fifita doesn't turn each passing play into a scramble drill.
If the Red Raiders allow Fifita to escape the pocket and make plays downfield with his arm, it will be a nightmare for the defense. But if they can shrink the pocket with a disciplined pass rush, they can impact Fifita enough to throw off his timing and make him struggle.
Texas Tech must find a way to run the ball
When your quarterback situation is as messy as Texas Tech's, the best thing you can do is run the ball. No matter who is taking the snaps for the Red Raiders today, the offense must find a way to move the ball on the ground to take some of the literal and figurative pressure off the quarterback.
The problem with that plan is that Arizona is strong against the run. The Wildcats rank 25th nationally in rushing defense at 107.1 yards per game.
Even the dominant run game of Cincinnati was held in check by Arizona. That night, the Bearcats managed to amass just 74 yards on 28 carries. That's an average of just 2.8 yards per rush for one of the top rushing attacks in America.
Tech hopes that the return of second-leading rusher Cam Dickey will boost the ground game. He will be needed to help J'Koby Williams attack an underrated Arizona defense.
The hope is that the return of Tech's one-two punch at RB will be enough to help the offense move the ball on the ground. Tech isn't much of a control-the-clock team, but doing so today would be a great idea because the best way to stop the Arizona offense is to keep the ball away from it. If the Red Raiders do that and impose their will on the ground, it will bode well for the home team today.
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