Though Texas Tech basketball fans hope that the 2024-25 season still has some serious meat on the bone, many are also starting to think about what comes after the postseason plays out. Naturally, most in Scarlet and Black are curious about the future of sophomore forward JT Toppin.
In his first season as a Red Raider, the Dallas, Texas native has blossomed into one of the best players in America. He's averaging 18.1 points and 9.3 rebounds per game to lead the top-10 ranked Red Raiders in both categories. He'll be a sure-fire first-team All-Big 12 selection and he is one of the frontrunners to win Big 12 Player of the Year. What's more, will likely be named an All-American after the season is over.
Thus, Toppin will have options when the dust settles on the 2024-25 campaign. One of his potential paths forward could be a jump to the NBA.
On Monday, Sports Illustrated's Derek Parker released an updated two-round mock draft, and Toppin was included. Parker has Toppin heading to the Brooklyn Nets at pick No. 25.
This potential scenario would make Toppin's choice about whether to turn pro or return to the college ranks difficult.
One one hand, it is crucial for a player like Toppin to be a first-round pick because in the NBA, only the first-round picks have their rookie contracts fully guaranteed. Meanwhile, second-round picks have no financial protection should they get waived by a team.
While it is great for Toppin to be mocked in the first round, pick No. 25 is close enough to the bottom of the first round (there are only 30 picks in each round) that it is not hard to envision a scenario in which a player at No. 25 might slide out of the first round.
What's more, pick No. 25 will make only about $2.26 million dollars as a rookie next season. That's not significantly more than Toppin could command in an NIL marketplace that is going to be as lucrative as ever this offseason, given that this will be the last offseason before the impending House Settlement changes the player compensation game in a huge way (if the settlement is approved in the courts).
Therefore, Toppin will likely have an opportunity to come close to, if not surpass, what he could make in the NBA by landing a massive NIL deal. Last offseason, it was reported that forward Great Osobor was paid a record $2 million to transfer from Utah State to Washington and he is not near the caliber of player that Toppin is, so Toppin could theoretically top that number this year.
On the other hand, Toppin may not want to gamble by prolonging his NBA future another year. There is always the possibility of an injury that could hurt his draft stock, so if he thinks he's going to be a sure-fire first-round pick this summer, he might be tempted to cash in his chips and realize his NBA dreams.
Of course, Toppin's stock could also rise if he plays well in the NCAA Tournament. Every season, it seems as if a player or two does wonders for his NBA Draft status by dominating during March Madness. Tech fans saw that with Zhaire Smith in 2018, for instance, when he went from off the radar to a first-round pick by showcasing his rare athleticism during the Red Raiders' run to the Elite Eight.
Therefore, Toppin's story still likely has a few twists and turns before his college days are put to rest. However, it does appear that he'll have to make a decision between the college game and the NBA for a second straight offseason.