During the “Air Raid” era of Texas Tech football, many have pointed to Texas Tech’s pass-heavy offense as a reason for the program’s continued defensive struggles. However, the statistics suggest a different story.
Conventional football wisdom suggests that one of the main benefits of a strong running game is that it also helps protect the defense. The more a team can grind out first downs on the ground the more time will be taken off the clock and the fewer plays the opposition will run. However, under Kliff Kingsbury the Texas Tech defense has not been impacted at all by the Red Raider ground game.
The best defensive season of Kingsbury’s tenure came in his first year, 2013. That year, the Red Raiders yielded 30.5 points per game. That number is far from impressive but it is twelve points fewer per game than the next best season, 2014.
2013 was also the season that Texas Tech started a true freshman at quarterback in every game. With either Baker Mayfield or Davis Webb taking virtually every snap that season, one might figure that Kingsbury relied more heavily on the ground game. However, that is not what he did.
Kingsbury ran the ball an average of 32.5 times per game in 2013. Conversely, he threw it 54.9 times per game (the most pass attempts per game in his tenure).
That season saw Tech average the exact same number of rushes per game as in 2016. However, the 2016 defense surrendered 43.5 points per game.
More from Wreck'Em Red
- Texas Tech football: Red Raider fans need to know about these Mountaineers
- Texas Tech football: Red Raiders land first commit for class of 2025
- Texas Tech football: Why have the Red Raiders struggled on the road under McGuire?
- Texas Tech football: Why the Red Raiders can compete for a Big 12 title
- Texas Tech football: Plenty of questions remain as conference play arrives
In fact, under Kingsbury’s guidance, the Texas Tech defense has been woefully bad regardless of how many times the offense has run the ball.
2014 saw Texas Tech rush the ball 29.6 times per game while giving up 42.1 points per game. In 2015, the Red Raiders ran the ball 35.7 times per game and gave up 43.6 points per game.
Obviously, the problem on defense is not related to the style of offense Texas Tech runs. The difference in the 2013 Texas Tech defense was experience.
That season, five of the top ten tacklers on the defense were seniors. That group included linebacker Will Smith, defensive back Tre Porter and defensive tackle Kerry Hyder who ranked first, second and fourth on the team respectively.
The 2013 Texas Tech defense also featured seniors Dartwan Bush, Terrance Bullitt and Dennel Wesley as key contributors. In addition, juniors like Jackson Richards, Zach Winbush and Sam Eguavoen were important members of the only Texas Tech defense in Kingsbury’s tenure to rank in the top 100 in points allowed per game.
So what does this suggest for the 2017 defense?
This fall, Texas Tech will be light on senior leadership. Only four seniors, (DB D.J. Polite-Bray, DEs Zach Barnes and Taylor Nunez, and DT Mychealon Thomas) will be in the defensive rotation. Plus, the majority of the juniors that the Red Raiders will rely on are JUCO transfers and most JUCO players do not make significant contributions until their senior seasons.
Texas Tech is having to rely on an uncomfortably young group of defenders to perform in what is a make-or-break season for Kingsbury and his entire staff. Subsequently, it would be wise for Tech to enter each game assuming that 40 points will be necessary for victory.
And if Kingsbury has to throw the ball 60 times per game to reach the necessary point total, that is what he should do (especially with a senior quarterback). With no significant offseason additions, the Texas Tech running backs will be virtually the same this year as the group that averaged just 3.2 yards per carry last year. Meanwhile, receiver is the deepest position on the roster and features explosive players like Keke Coutee, Dylan Cantrell and Derrick Willies.
Fans should expect another season full of shootouts in which the Red Raiders must light up the score board in order to compete. Inevitably, the offense will have moments when the passing game stalls out and some fans will inevitably bemoan Kingsbury’s insistence on throwing the ball. When the defense has a game in which it is torched for 40-plus points, arm chair offensive coordinators will pontificate on how a more dedicated ground game would preserve the defense.
Next: New DL Coach Terrance Jamison Faces Huge Task
However, the ground game is not what Texas Tech is built to do so it should be used only to compliment the passing game and keep defenses somewhat honest. After all, the statistics suggest that running the ball will not help preserve the defense anyway.