Texas Tech Football: Demarcus Felton 2017 Projections

Texas Tech football is now less than two weeks away from kick off. As we prepare for the 2017 season, here is an educated guess about the production the Red Raiders will receive from junior running back Demarcus Felton.

In 2017, the Texas Tech football team again expects to have one of the top offenses in the nation. One key member of the offense that must improve upon his 2016 season is junior running back Demarcus Felton.

The native of Houston fell victim to the dreaded sophomore slump last year. After putting up a gaudy 12.2 yards per carry (though on only six carries) as a freshman, Felton did not respond to the demands of being the lead running back as well as was expected.

As a smaller back, Felton was worn down by the pounding he took as a result of his increased workload. He missed a total of four games and ended the season with just 354 yards rushing and three touchdowns.

Meanwhile, as Felton struggled, true freshman Da’Leon Ward took over the role of starting tailback. He surged passed Felton as the season progressed to lead the team with 428 yards.

In fairness, part of Felton’s struggles must be attributed to the spotty play of the 2016 offensive line. That group did not provide consistent running lanes for any running back last year as the Red Raiders averaged just 3.2 yards per carry as a team, the lowest total in Kliff Kingsbury’s tenure.

But in 2017, Texas Tech is confident that its offensive line is improved. Veterans like Terrence Steele, Travis Buffy, Paul Stawarz and Madison Akamnonu should be vastly improved after a year of on-the-job training. Meanwhile, highly touted freshman such as Jack Anderson and Dawson Deaton are turning heads in fall camp.

So what is a reasonable expectation of Felton for this season? Certainly, it is logical to project his statistics to be increased this year, for a number of reasons.

First of all, Felton is the clear cut lead running back. Ward is not currently practicing with the team as the coaching staff waits to see if he will be academically eligible this fall. That means that Felton will get the lion’s share of the carries.

It is also be reasonable to think that Kingsbury may try to rely more on the ground game this year because of the quarterback situation. 2016 starter Patrick Mahomes is now in the NFL and Nick Shimonek will be his replacement. Shimonek is yet to start a game at the collegiate level and has attempted just 60 passes in his career.

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Though Texas Tech will always be a pass first team, it would surprise no one if Kingsbury looks to take some of the burden off of Shimonek by pounding the ball. That approach could also help protect the suspect Red Raider defense.

In fact, in the past Kingsbury has shown a willingness to feature his running backs. In 2015, Kingsbury’s trio of running backs (DeAndre Washington, Justin Stockton and Felton) combined for 300 carries. In 2014, four running backs totaled 276 combined carries.

And in those two seasons, Kingsbury was rewarded for that approach. Washington surpassed the 1,000-yard mark in both seasons becoming the first Texas Tech running back in the “Air Raid” era to put up consecutive 1,000-yard seasons.

Felton averaged just eight carries per game last year but that total is sure to increase this season. It is easy to envision him getting between 12-15 carries each week this year. Should he remain healthy, that would put him in the range of 150 rushes.

With that increase in carries, Felton will likely drop in yards-per-rush (he gained 5.5 yards-per-rush last season). A reasonable expectation would be 5.0 yards per carry, which would be a fantastic uptick in production from last year’s running backs’ production.

Thus, a healthy Felton that plays all 12 games could be in line to more than double last season’s output. A season of 150 carries and 750 yards is easy to envision.

Predicting touchdowns is far more difficult because the game situation often stipulates which running back will get the ball. For example, in DeAndre Washington’s 1,103-yard 2014 season, he ran for just two touchdowns.

This season, Felton will not get the bulk of goal line carries. Those will go to 235-pound JUCO signee Desmond Nisby meaning he could easily out pace Felton in rushing touchdowns. So, let’s be conservative and predict that DeMarcus Felton will double his rushing touchdown total from last season and find the end zone six times this season.

Next: Transfers Will Key 2017 Defense

After seeing the running game take a huge step backwards last season, Kliff Kingsbury would be pleased if DeMarcus Felton hit these numbers. And if Felton can reinvigorate the Red Raider’s ground game, the 2017 offense will once again be one of the most lethal in the nation.

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