Texas Tech football: Weak ’19 home schedule could further attendance issues

Following last week’s release of the 2019 Texas Tech football schedule, it is obvious that next year’s home slate is lacking a marquee opponent which could cause pose some challenges at the gate, where the program has already seen a recent decline.

Last week, the 2019 Texas Tech football schedule was released.  The Red Raiders will host its standard six contests at Jones Stadium beginning on August 31st but none of the teams coming to Lubbock next year (Montana St. UTEP, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Iowa State) are considered marquee opponents.  And given the struggles the program is already experiencing when it comes to fan engagement, 2019 could be an especially poor year to have what most would consider to be a weak home schedule.

For the past few years, the Texas Tech football program has been trying to combat the problem of declining attendance at home games.  Mediocre results on the field have created a spirit of apathy among the casual fan who is less willing to interrupt their Saturday plans to watch inconsequential college football games, especially when those games kickoff at 11 am conflicting with youth and high school sports, as has so often been the case for Texas Tech in recent seasons.

The reality is that there are two teams in the Big 12 that are guaranteed to pack Jones Stadium regardless of the record of either team, Texas and Oklahoma.  Unfortunately, a short-sighted decision by former Texas Tech Athletic Director Gerald Myers made it so that the Red Raiders would not see either of those teams in Lubbock in odd-numbered years.

When the Big 12 realigned in 2010-11, Myers agreed for Texas Tech to play Oklahoma in Norman two years in a row (2010 and 2011) because he felt that playing the Longhorns and the Sooners at home in the same season was the best path to a Big 12 title.  This decision was likely a knee-jerk reaction following the 2008 season when Texas Tech’s best team ever beat UT at home only to lose on the road at OU derailing what was shaping up to be a potential Big 12 championship season.

Myers decision was put in motion prior to the departure of Texas A&M to the SEC,  which further compounded the problem.  When the Aggies left the Big 12, Texas Tech lost its third marquee opponent and the only big-name school on its home schedule in odd-numbered years.

But another curious decision by current AD Kirby Hocutt is also impacting next year’s home slate.  As per Big 12 rules, the Red Raiders must play a power 5 conference team in the non-conference portion of the schedule every year.

Last year, Hocutt used a high-interest non-con home game against Arizona State as a selling point to offset a lackluster home Big 12 schedule.  But next year, Tech’s non-conference power 5 game will be a road tilt against Arizona meaning the two non-conference teams to visit Texas Tech in 2019 will be FCS member Montana State and UTEP, which currently holds the longest current losing streak in the FBS.

Therefore, it is fair to wonder whether a program struggling with fan engagement, especially among the student body, will be able to fill Jones Stadium in 2019 when the biggest name to visit is TCU.  Last year’s home game against TCU drew only 51,278 fans, almost 10,000 below capacity and the Horned Frogs are in the midst of their worst season since joining the Big 12 meaning they could be looking at a down season next year.

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The only way one can imagine the 2019 attendance at Jones Stadium improving is if the Texas Tech football team becomes nationally relevant again.  With young stars like Alan Bowman, T.J. Vasher, Ta’Zhawn Henry on offense and a defense set to return all but four starters, there is reason to think that next year’s team could be the best Red Raider team in a decade.

But what if the current team does not finish 2018 strong?  Will a fan base split between those who want Kliff Kingsbury to stay and those who want a new head coach be willing to fill the stadium next year if half of the fan base views Kingsbury as a lame duck or a failed experiment who has used up all of his nine lives?

Tech’s attendance in Big 12 games had dropped significantly in recent seasons.  Two years ago, Tech averaged 57,972 fans per game but that number dropped to 54,214 last year.  And in two Big 12 games this year, Tech is drawing roughly the same at 54,482 per game (though that number should go up after the OU and Texas games).

And if 2018 continues to be a season in which the football program finds its footing and begins to transform itself into a consistent winner under Kingsbury, 2019 could be a pivotal season in helping to win back a cynical fan base that has not seen a winner in a decade.  But a lackluster home schedule will make bringing life back into Jones Stadium even more challenging that it has already proven to be in the current landscape of the sport.