Texas Tech football: Is Kirby Hocutt facing a no-win situation with Kingsbury?

At some point in the next few weeks, Kirby Hocutt will have to make a decision about the fate of the Texas Tech football program and Kliff Kingsbury.  But with such a divided fan base, it feels like Hocutt is facing a no-win situation.

Six years ago this December, Texas Tech athletic director Kirby Hocutt made a hire designed specifically to reunite a fractured Texas Tech football fan base.  Following three years of bickering between the pro-Mike Leach and the pro-Kent Hance / Tommy Tuberville factions, there was little unity among the Red Raider faithful.

So when Tuberville climbed out the bathroom window of the 50 Yard Line steak house in the middle of a recruiting dinner to take the Cincinnati job, Hocutt made the one hire that could have united the fan base: Kliff Kingsbury.  But in the most ironic of twists, the lack of success in the Kingsbury era has caused another gulf to form in Raiderland.

While the 2018 version of Red Raider civil war is far more amicable than the 2012 conflict, it feels more personal to most fans.  That is because the argument no longer surrounds a carpet-bagging outsider like Tuberville but one of our own, escalating feelings on both sides of the issue.

And unfortunately, we have already reached the point where Kirby Hocutt is facing a no-win situation.

Though Hocutt officially answers to Texas Tech president Lawrence Schovanec, his position resembles that of an elected official because ultimately, he must be able to win over his constituents; the fans who support the program with their hard-earned money.  But what makes Hocutt’s position so unenviable this time around is that there is no move that will instantly unite Texas Tech football fans like there was in 2012.

If Hocutt decides to bring Kingsbury back, he almost certainly has to give him a contract extension of at least two years.  If Kingsbury goes into this offseason looking like a lame duck coach, it will be impossible for him to put together any semblance of a recruiting class.

We have already seen that scenario play out in the current recruiting cycle.  Kingsbury’s first choice to be his 2019 QB signee was Jacob Zeno, a 4-star prospect from Waco and most believed that Zeno was destined to be a Red Raider.  But he eventually committed to Baylor telling the Red Raider coaching staff that he was not certain they would be around once he arrived on campus.

That same scenario will unfold time and again if Kingsbury has to sit in front of recruits and sell them on coming to play for him despite the fact that his contract expires in 2020.  It is easy ammunition for opposing coaches to use against Kingsbury and will further hamstring his efforts to build the program.

But giving Kingsbury another contract extension will not please the large group of Texas Tech fans who are still angry about the first extension Hocutt gave Kingsbury.  After Kingsbury went 8-5 in his first year,  his boss rewarded him with a $20 million contract extension that added three more years onto his original deal and raised his buyout significantly.

Those who wanted to see Kingsbury fired before this year point to that buyout, which was at one time in the ballpark of $11 million, as one of the reasons he has kept his job.  Whether or not that is true doesn’t really matter in the court of public opinion.  Those who are in favor of change will certainly be angered to see another extension given to a coach who is guaranteed to finish the regular season with career record below .500.

It will be tough for Hocutt and the athletic department to sell season tickets next year if the status quo is maintained.  The 2019 home schedule is less than exciting with TCU, Iowa State and Oklahoma State being the most intriguing teams to visit Lubbock.

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Fans who are cynical about the current coaching staff and who are wanting a change to be made, as well as the casual fan who only shows up when Tech is winning or playing the Longhorns or Sooners, likely won’t be motivated to come out next season if something does not change.  If Hocutt has not been happy with the fan engagement this year, next year could be far worse.

On the other hand, if Hocutt does make a coaching change, there will be significant ramifications on the other side of the aisle.

First of all, putting an end to the Kliff Kingsbury era will result in a hit to Hocutt’s reputation.  If the Kingsbury experiment does not work out, it will be the second straight head football coaching hire to flop on Hocutt’s watch after his hiring of Al Golden to coach the Miami Hurricanes in 2010.

Then there is also the stain of being the man who fired one of the most beloved Texas Tech football figures of all-time.  Kingsbury’s supporters rightly point out how well he has conducted himself in building a clean program and representing the university with class and dignity.  In the era of college football coaching scandals like those at Ohio State and Maryland, that should not be taken for granted.

Also, consider how Hocutt would look if Kingsbury were to be fired from his alma mater only to find success at another school or even in the NFL.  Kingsbury is a brilliant offensive mind and if he is not the Red Raiders’ head coach next year, he will have plenty of opportunities, likely as an offensive coordinator both in college or in the NFL where collegiate offensive principles are en vogue like never before.

If Kingsbury is fired only to eventually become the type of iconic and game-changing coach Hocutt envisioned in 2012, Red Raider fans would never let the athletic director live that down.   What’s more, that scenario would also permanently scar Hocutt’s reputation.

Also, keep in mind that the talk of conference realignment could resurface in the near future as several of the major conferences, including the Big 12, will be renegotiating their television deals in the next handful of years.  If Hocutt brings in a new coach, it could set the program back a few years and one must wonder if the Texas Tech football will be able to regain its footing in time to be an attractive option should the now dormant realignment volcano erupt again in 2023 or 2024 as many predict it will.

The decision facing Kirby Hocutt is one I am glad I do not have to make.  There is no clear-cut answer.  Either way he goes, there will be a huge swath of the fan base that is unhappy.

Faced with a no-win situation, Kirby Hocutt is about to have to make the most important decision of his career and it is one that will forever shape the fate of the Texas Tech football program.  The only thing we can all agree upon it seems, is that we all hope he gets it right.