Texas Tech football must regain red zone mojo against Kansas State

For the Texas Tech football team, rediscovering its early-season success in the red zone on both sides of the football will be essential this week.

For much of the 2018 season, the Texas Tech football team was one of the best red zone teams in the nation on both sides of the ball. But in recent weeks, the Red Raiders have begun to have trouble inside the 20-yard line.

Offensively, the only way that teams have stopped the Red Raiders in the red zone this season is by forcing turnovers. Consider the past two games against Oklahoma and Texas.

The Red Raiders had six red zone possessions against the Sooners and scored on every one. In all, 38 of the team’s 46 points came on drives into the red zone with only one trip resulting in a field goal.

But that changed significantly against Texas. Jett Duffey had two crippling turnovers inside the Texas 20 (and another fumble at the Texas 23) that proved to be the difference in the game.

Even after those red zone miscues, the Red Raider offense is still one of the best in the nation. Tech has scored on 49 of 55 red zone possessions (89%) which is good for 25th in the nation. What’s more, 69% of their red zone opportunities have resulted in touchdowns.

It must be pointed out that much of Texas Tech’s success must be attributed to the return to health of kicker Clayton Hatfield who has made 14 of 15 field goal attempts on the season and has hit all of his attempts on kicks that began with the snap coming from inside the 20-yard-line.

Fortunately, Kansas State’s defense is not solid in this area of the field. The Wildcats have allowed opponents to score on an astonishing 91% of red zone possessions with just under 53% of those scores being touchdowns. Overall, that is good for just 117th in the country.

And when the roles are reversed, Texas Tech should still have the advantage. Tech has the 37th best red zone defense in the nation keeping opponents off the score board completely 20% of the time and keeping them out of the end zone 40% of the time.

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Meanwhile, KSU’s offense ranks just 110th overall scoring on 77.7% of its red zone chances. And of those scores, only 48% have been touchdowns.

But in recent weeks, the Red Raider defense has struggled in that area, which had been a strength for most of the season. Against Iowa State, OU and Texas, the Red Raiders have allowed opponents to score on 11 of 12 red zone drives with ten of those scores being touchdowns. Tech has not had a red zone stop since Iowa State missed a 37-yard field goal in the first quarter three weeks ago.

Keep an eye on how well the Red Raiders play in the red zone against Kansas State. The Wildcats are one of the least explosive offensive teams in America having pulled off just 39 plays of 20 yards or more (110th in the nation).

That means their scoring drives are more likely to be methodical marches that eventually wind up in the red zone rather than long touchdown plays. It will be key for David Gibbs’ defense to come up big as they near the goal line and force the Wildcats’ questionable kicking game to covert field goal attempts.

There are several factors that lead one to believe that this will be a physical grind-it-out type of game similar to the TCU game in October. The weather forecast does not appear conducive to an offensive shootout and the Texas Tech offense may be more centered around the ground game with Jett Duffey at QB than with Alan Bowman. Plus, there are likely to be fewer possessions in this game because of the Wildcats’ propensity for running the ball meaning that the importance of every drive will be magnified.

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Therefore, the outcome of this game is likely to be decided inside the 20-yard-line. If the Red Raiders can figure out how to regain their early season red zone form on both sides of the ball, they will have a decided advantage in a game they desperately need to win.

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