The weather forecast for Saturday in Manhattan, Kansas calls for cold and windy conditions causing fans to remember Texas Tech’s 2016 trip to Ames, one of the worst losses in program history.
It appears that Mother Nature will be throwing quite a challenge at the Texas Tech football team Saturday in Manhattan, Kansas. According to AccuWeather.com temperatures are expected to be in the 30’s with wind gusts of 15-20 MPH out of the North dropping the wind chill into the 20’s by kickoff.
That is less than ideal for Texas Tech’s “Air Raid’ offense and almost a carbon copy of the weather that greeted the Red Raiders the last time they made a November foray to the Midwest. Two years ago, on a cold windy day in Ames, Iowa, the Red Raiders were unable to handle the adverse conditions and suffered a 66-10 defeat to Iowa State.
On November 19, 2016, the temperature in Ames was 38 degrees at kickoff (2:30 pm, the same time as this week’s kick time) and North winds of 25 MPH that gusted up to 35 MPH sent the wind chill into the teens.
Unfortunately, that Texas Tech team was not mentally tough enough to fight through the adverse conditions. Not even Pat Mahomes, who had his worst day as a Red Raider.
Completing just 18/36 passes for 219 yards, a touchdown and an interception, Mahomes never found a rhythm. Overall, the offense managed just 306 yards of total offense and turned the ball over three times in losing to an Iowa State team that was just 2-8 on the season at that point.
Tech will face a similar opponent tomorrow in Kansas State. The Wildcats enter the game just 4-6 and having won only two conference games in 2018.
But one must wonder if the weather will help negate Texas Tech’s biggest advantage, its passing game. If that happens, the Red Raiders could be in trouble thanks to a ground game that has mysteriously disappeared over the course of the season.
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During its current three-game losing streak, Texas Tech has rushed for an average of just 92 yards per game. And during that span, the most a Red Raider running back has gone for in a game is just 53 yards.
When Jett Duffey has been at quarterback, as he will be against Kansas State, he has been the team’s biggest threat on the ground. He’s led the team in rushing four times including in both of his starts.
Against TCU, he ran for 83 yards and a touchdown helping his team to a 17-14 win. Last week, he ran for 80 yards but he lost two fumbles in the red zone which proved to be disastrous in the 41-34 loss.
Expect to see plenty of the ground game, both with Duffey running the ball and with the running backs, especially if the Red Raiders are not able to get into an offensive groove early. But Tech will likely be without running back Ta’Zhawn Henry who is dealing with turf toe meaning that they will be without an explosive weapon out of the backfield.
What’s more, the weather conditions could neutralize the best weapon on the field, wide receiver Antoine Wesley who leads the Big 12 in receiving. However, Wesley and Duffey did have a strong connection on a cool, windy night in Lubbock last week hooking up for 171 yards and two touchdowns on eight receptions.
But what may be the most encouraging sign for Texas Tech fans is that this year’s team has displayed a mental toughness that we have not seen in recent teams. The Red Raiders have shown fight in almost pulling off double-digit second-half comebacks against both West Virginia and Texas (both with Duffey at the helm) giving one reason to believe that they will be able to handle the adverse weather that likely awaits them tomorrow in Kansas.
Still, it is hard not to think back to that dreadful day two years ago in Ames. It was one of the worst days in program history and it spelled doom for the 2016 team as it eliminated them from postseason contention. This year’s version of the Red Raiders had better not succumb to the conditions or else, their bowl chances will suddenly be on life-support as will the fate of the entire program.