Texas Tech basketball: What Red Raiders must do to beat Duke

Keep live-ball turnovers to a minimum

Duke’s game plan is rather simple.  They want to use their elite athleticism to overwhelm opponents and create easy baskets on the fast break.

Look for the Devils to put lots of pressure on the Red Raider ball handlers around the three-point line hoping to turn deflections into steals and fast-break points.  That is why Tech must keep its live-ball turnovers to five or fewer.

Duke is averaging over 28 fast-break points per game, most in the nation.  What’s more, Duke leads the nation with 11.2 steals per game. Meanwhile, Tech is allowing just six fast-break points this year (fewest in the Big 12) and only 12 turnovers per game.

There was a time when Duke was a lethal half-court offensive team loaded with deadly shooters like J.J. Redick, Seth Curry or (going all the way back to the 1990’s) Trajan Langdon.  But this year, they shoot only 33.7% from deep and have no player shooting over 39% from three-point range.

Tech needs to be able to set its half-court defense so any turnovers need to be the type that end up in the front row and not in the hands of Williamson as he freight trains to the basket.   In their only loss this year to Gonzaga, Duke forced just 11 turnovers and as a result had to run its half-court offense and wound up shooting just 5-13 from deep.

Over the years, Duke has been a poor defensive program when they have to guard throughout an entire possession.  That is often a result of relying on so many true freshmen who have spent their entire careers having to play little to no defense.  After all, when was the last time a player was named a McDonalds’ All-American because of his defensive prowess?

Tech must make certain that almost every possession ends with a shot attempt or at worst, the ball hurling towards a photographer or celebrity sitting court-side.  If Tech can keep from giving Duke easy baskets, it will be fascinating to see if the Devis have the stomach to grind out a win against a Red Raider team that loves to turn games into dog fights.