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Texas Tech football: Red Raiders will beat Arizona if…

By Matthew Conner

LUBBOCK, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 07: Quarterback Alan Bowman #10 and wide receiver RJ Turner #2 signal during "The Matador Song" after the college football game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the UTEP Miners at Jones AT&T Stadium on September 07, 2019 in Lubbock, Texas. (Poto by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
LUBBOCK, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 07: Quarterback Alan Bowman #10 and wide receiver RJ Turner #2 signal during "The Matador Song" after the college football game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the UTEP Miners at Jones AT&T Stadium on September 07, 2019 in Lubbock, Texas. (Poto by John E. Moore III/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Keep J.J. Taylor below 100 yards

As important as the legs of Khalil Tate are to Arizona, so too are the legs of junior RB J.J. Taylor.  The pint-sized ball of power and speed is averaging 845. yards per game this year, just a few yards below his career average of 87.4.

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But when he surpasses the 100-yard mark, Arizona is nearly unbeatable.  In the ten games in which he’s gone over the century mark, the Wildcats are 8-2.  What’s more, the Wildcats are 5-1 in games where Taylor has surpassed 150 yards on the ground.

Not coincidentally, we have seen the 100-yard mark for Taylor be a barometer of success already in 2019. In the loss to Hawaii, he amassed only 67 yards but in last week’s win over Northern Arizona, he broke out for 102.

There’s also a correlation between his yards per rush and Arizona’s success.  Here, the line of demarcation is around seven yards per carry.

In the nine games Taylor has averaged at least 6.8 yards per rush, Arizona has gone 8-1.  In the other 22 games of his career, his team is just 7-15.

This year, Tech has been stellar against the run.  Allowing just 102 yards per game, Patterson’s defense ranks 35 nationally.

What’s more, Tech’s been tackling at a level like we haven’t seen in years.  That will be key tonight against Taylor who is powerful enough to break arm tackles and elusive enough to make defenders miss in space.

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This will be a huge test for Broderick Washington, Jordyn Brooks and the rest of the Red Raider front seven.  But if they can keep Taylor from going off, Tech will likely come away victorious in what looks to be a game that could go either way.

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