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Texas Tech football: Red Raiders will beat the Cyclones if…

By Matthew Conner

WACO, TEXAS - OCTOBER 12: SaRodorick Thompson #28 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders scores a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Baylor Bears on October 12, 2019 in Waco, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
WACO, TEXAS - OCTOBER 12: SaRodorick Thompson #28 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders scores a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Baylor Bears on October 12, 2019 in Waco, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
(Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images) /

…every red zone possession leads to points

Given how much the ISU defense is helped when the field is condensed vertically, it’s no surprise to see the Cyclones at No. 2 in the Big 12 in red zone defense.  The only surprise is seeing that Kansas is the only team ahead of them at this point.

Thus far, ISU has come up with a stop 18.8% of its defensive red zone possessions.  Tech, on the other hand, is 6th in the league by making a stop just 9.1% of the time.

Today, it would be too much to ask for every Red Raider drive that crosses the ISU 20 to result in seven points.  But unlike last week, every red zone trip must yield points.

In Waco, Tech got to the Baylor 21-yard line six times and came away with only 13 total points.  Twice Matt Wells’ team turned the ball over inside the 20 and once, he made an ill-advised decision to go for it on 4th down from the BU 17, giving up three certain points after Duffey could not connect with R.J. Turner.

Though we want Yost to be aggressive today with his play calls and challenge ISU deep, when Tech gets inside the 20, he has to be careful not to put Duffey in position to take risks, as he is prone to do.  That’s not to say that the ball has to stay on the ground but the passes need to be high-percentage and likely need to stay away from the middle of the field.  Expect the fade route to be a frequent go-to for the Red Raiders today.

Overall, Tech is just 8th in the Big 12 in red zone offense.  The Red Raiders have scored on 88.9% of drives inside the 20.  But in 27 opportunities, Wells has seen his team settle for nine field goals and turn the ball over three times.

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Tech and OU are tied for the second-most red zone turnovers in the Big 12 this year with three each.  With four giveaways, Baylor is the only team with more.  That has to improve today.  While field goals alone won’t beat ISU, Tech can’t have any empty red zone possessions because points may be tough to come by against what is arguably the Big 12’s most confounding defense.

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