Texas Tech football: Red Raiders will beat Kansas tonight if…

…Jett Duffey has 300 passing yards and no interceptions

Kansas is atrocious against the run.  So that puts the onus on…Jett Duffey?  Actually yes.

What is the aspect of the Red Raider offense that an opposing defensive coordinator would see as the top priority to stop?  The running game.

Therefore, the Red Raiders have to make KU pay though the air.  That’s because it is safe to assume that the Jayhawks will want to load up to stop the run because SaRodorick Thompson has been Tech’s best offensive player.

Meanwhile, Duffey has been solid but at times erratic.  If he can throw for 300 yards and avoid any interceptions, KU will be in huge trouble.

Don’t expect OC David Yost to throw 16 wide receiver screens again this week but not because of general fan dissatisfaction with his game plan but because that’s not what KU’s defense is designed to give up.  Instead, Duffey will need to make more throws down the field and in the middle of the field.  But he must avoid throwing the ball to the defense at all costs.

If Duffey is off and can’t connect with his receivers downfield, KU will not fear the Tech passing game enough to have to drop more defenders in coverage.  That will allow them to crowd the line of scrimmage and sell out to stop the run.

This might be a game where Tech throws to get ahead and then runs to salt things away.  That’s a formula that could lead to big days for both Duffey and Thompson.

In six career starts, Duffey has thrown for 300 yards with no picks just once.  Against Oklahoma State this year, he had 424 yards and four touchdowns through the air with no interceptions in the most impressive Red Raider win of 2019 to date.

But on the road in his career, he’s thrown four picks in three starts while throwing for over 190 yards just once (362 against Baylor this year).  What’s more, his TD to INT ratio away from Jones Stadium is unacceptable at 1:2.

If Duffey is at his best (or close to it) tonight, Tech will have more than enough offense to put points on the board.  But if Duffey isn’t able to carry his portion of the load, all bets are off.