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Texas Tech basketball: Advanced stats show why Tech regressed in 2019-20

By Matthew Conner

LUBBOCK, TEXAS - JANUARY 07: Head coach Chris Beard of the Texas Tech Red Raiders conducts a timeout huddle during the second half of the college basketball game against the Baylor Bears on January 07, 2020 at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
LUBBOCK, TEXAS - JANUARY 07: Head coach Chris Beard of the Texas Tech Red Raiders conducts a timeout huddle during the second half of the college basketball game against the Baylor Bears on January 07, 2020 at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images) /
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Terrence Lewis #24 of the Iowa State Cyclones takes a shot as TJ Holyfield #22 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders blocks. (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images)
Terrence Lewis #24 of the Iowa State Cyclones takes a shot as TJ Holyfield #22 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders blocks. (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images) /

Non-blocked 2-point percentage

An easier to grasp advanced stat is non-blocked 2-point percentage.  As you can imagine, it simply measures how well a player or a team shot on 2-point attempts that were not blocked.  This is important to look at for Tech after the Red Raiders had a player the likes of Owens who set a school record for blocks in a season in 2018-19.

Even more than TS%, this stat measures how well a team shoots when taking out of account the shots that are blocked.  Certainly, some of these non-blocked 2-pointers can be influenced by a harassing defense but still, this measure is worth looking at because most of the 2-point field goals that arrive in the course of a game are either at the rim or are open looks.

This season, Tech was just No. 80 in this category.  Opponents hit 52% of all non-blocked 2-pointers they attempted.  A year ago, the Red Raiders’ opponents hit 49.6%.

That may not seem like a huge difference until you consider that over the last two years, Tech’s opponents averaged 1,146 2-point shots per year.  Thus, a difference of 2.4% could mean as many as 23 more made baskets and when you look at how many close games Tech lost this year, you can see how an extra made shot by the opponent would loom large.

Without Owens, Tech blocked 124 shots this year, 33 fewer than last year.  Thus, if the opponent made over half of those 33 extra shots that went to the rim, it would have made just enough of a difference for the close games to start to go against Tech, as they did time and again this past season.

This year, Tech lost four OT games and four more that were decided in regulation by five points or fewer.  Thus, the difference in one made basket could have turned the tide in a number of those contests, and the fact that Tech’s opponents shot 2.4% better on non-blocked field goals was significant.

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