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Texas Tech basketball: Advanced stats show why Tech regressed in 2019-20

By Matthew Conner

LUBBOCK, TEXAS - JANUARY 07: Head coach Chris Beard of the Texas Tech Red Raiders conducts a timeout huddle during the second half of the college basketball game against the Baylor Bears on January 07, 2020 at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
LUBBOCK, TEXAS - JANUARY 07: Head coach Chris Beard of the Texas Tech Red Raiders conducts a timeout huddle during the second half of the college basketball game against the Baylor Bears on January 07, 2020 at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images) /
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Chris Clarke #44 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders reaches for a loose ball in-between Kai Jones #22 and Andrew Jones #1 of the Texas Longhorns. (Photo by Chris Covatta/Getty Images)
Chris Clarke #44 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders reaches for a loose ball in-between Kai Jones #22 and Andrew Jones #1 of the Texas Longhorns. (Photo by Chris Covatta/Getty Images) /

Tech didn’t use its possessions efficiently

A stat that is completely within a team’s control is effective possession ratio.  This advanced stat measures how well a team gets a scoring opportunity with each possession.

This differs from turnover percentage because it also takes into account offensive rebounds.  Thus, a team could conceivably have an infinite number of scoring chances on a single possession so long as it keeps collecting offensive boards.

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As we know, Tech was atrocious on the offensive glass this year and that is one reason why the Red Raiders finished just No. 281 in the NCAA in effective possession ratio.  At 0.913 scoring opportunities per 1.000 possessions, Tech finished behind such basketball powers as Air Force, Louisiana Monroe, Alabama-Birmingham, and Loyola of Maryland.

When it came to offensive boards, Beard’s team was able to collect just 25.3% of the available rebounds.  That was good for only 202nd in the NCAA.  In 2018-19, the Red Raiders were No. 176 at 26.3%.

By contrast, the nation’s best team in this stat, Houston, averaged 1.015 opportunities per possession.  They were the only team in the country over 1.000.

Of course, turnovers did play a role and that’s an area where Tech was also worse this season than last year.  Giving the ball away on 19.3% of their possessions, the Red Raiders saw an increase of almost 2% from last year and they finished just No. 235 in the nation in that stat.

Beard is always harping on his team to take “championship” shots meaning to treat every possession like it comes with a trophy on the line.  However, in 2019-20, that didn’t happen often enough and it was a major factor in Tech’s regression.

More. The defining moments of the 2019-20 season. light

As the game continues to trend towards advanced mathematical analysis methods, look for Beard and his program to invest more heavily in that area.  After all, we know that he will leave no stone unturned when trying to improve his program.  Hopefully, in 2020-21, these three categories will show a marked improvement from the Texas Tech basketball team.

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