Wreck'Em Red
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Texas Tech football: Game by game predictions for 2020 season

By Matthew Conner

LUBBOCK, TX - NOVEMBER 03: Texas Tech Red Raider mascot "Masked Rider (Lyndi Starr) and Cody (horse) lead the team onto the field before the game against the Oklahoma Sooners on November 3, 2018 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. Oklahoma defeated Texas Tech 51-46. (Photo by John Weast/Getty Images)
LUBBOCK, TX - NOVEMBER 03: Texas Tech Red Raider mascot "Masked Rider (Lyndi Starr) and Cody (horse) lead the team onto the field before the game against the Oklahoma Sooners on November 3, 2018 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. Oklahoma defeated Texas Tech 51-46. (Photo by John Weast/Getty Images) /
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Quarterback Alan Bowman #10 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders srambles under pressure from defensive end Matt Leo #89 of the Iowa State Cyclones in the second half of play at Jack Trice Stadium on October 27, 2018 in Ames, Iowa. The Iowa State Cyclones won 40-31 over the Texas Tech Red Raiders. (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images)
Quarterback Alan Bowman #10 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders srambles under pressure from defensive end Matt Leo #89 of the Iowa State Cyclones in the second half of play at Jack Trice Stadium on October 27, 2018 in Ames, Iowa. The Iowa State Cyclones won 40-31 over the Texas Tech Red Raiders. (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images) /

@ Iowa State – Win

Iowa State enters this year as a darkhorse Big 12 title contender.  They return fantastic QB Brock Purdy, explosive RB Breece Hall, and standout TE Charlie Kolar…all of whom had big days against Tech last year in Lubbock.

What’s more, their defense is again expected to be one of the Big 12’s best with nine returning starters.  That includes the return of DE JaQuan Bailey, the nation’s third-leading career sack artist with 18.5 who missed most of last year with an injury.

But despite all of that, I can see Tech pulling off an upset in Ames.  First of all, the massive advantage the Cyclones typically enjoy by playing in front of a full house at Jack Trice Stadium will be non-existent.  Year-after-year, the fans in Ames are the best in the Big 12 and they give their team one of the best home-field edges in the nation.  Without that backing, this game becomes more winnable for the Red Raiders.

Also, consider that in each of the last two years, Tech had opportunities to top the Cyclones.  Last year, after falling into a 20-0 hole, Tech then outscored ISU 24-14 over the last two-plus quarters of the game and had kicker Trey Wolff not missed a 42-yard FG early in the fourth quarter, the Red Raiders would have cut that game to a one-score affair with plenty of time remaining.

Two years ago, in a 40-31 ISU win in Ames, the game was tied at 31 in the fourth quarter.  What’s more, the Red Raiders had several opportunities to win despite the fact that Alan Bowman was picked off three times in what was one of his worst passing performances as a collegiate.

This year, the difference will be Tech’s running game.  To beat the Cyclones, you have to make them pay for dropping eight into coverage and playing a 3-man line.  Tech will be able to do that with a veteran and talented interior of the o-line opening holes for SaRodorick Thompson and friends.  That’s why this will be the year that the Red Raiders finally solve the Matt Campbell puzzle and take down a team that many think could crash the conference championship game party.

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