Texas Tech football: What needs to happen for Red Raiders to upset UT

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LUBBOCK, TX – OCTOBER 31: Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Oklahoma State Cowboys on October 31, 2015 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. Oklahoma State defeated Texas Tech 70-53. (Photo by John Weast/Getty Images) /

Tech will need a +3 turnover margin

No one believes the Red Raiders will manage to put the clamps on the Longhorn offense this afternoon. Thus, the best hope Keith Patterson’s unit has for survival is to be opportunistic and take the football away at least three times. After all, we saw that recipe lead to an upset in 2019.

Last fall, the Red Raiders benefitted from five Oklahoma State turnovers in a 45-35 win in Lubbock. And being as Tech was turnover-free, the No. 21 Cowboys could not keep up despite being significant favorites.

That huge edge in the takeaway department helped cover for some flaws that the Red Raiders had that afternoon. For instance, Tech was just 2-13 on third down. Also, the Cowboys were able to run for 219 yards. But as is so often the case, turnovers told the story.

A similar scenario unfolded in Tech’s only other Big 12 win last year. In the 38-17 triumph at West Virginia, the Red Raiders had a 4-0 edge in takeaways. That included two interceptions of Mountaineer QB Austin Kendall and two fumble recoveries (one being a strip-sack of Kendall).

What’s going to make turnovers tougher to come by in this game against the Longhorns is the fact that UT QB Sam Ehlinger is not as turnover-prone as is OSU’s Spencer Sanders or WVU’s Austin Kendall. In fact, for his career, Ehlinger has never had more than 10 INTs in a season.

According to football outsiders, each turnover gained is worth approximately four points. Thus, if Tech can have a +3 in that aspect of the game, it could be an advantage of 12 points. That would certainly make this contest rather interesting and might tip the scales in Tech’s favor just as turnovers did in the only two meaningful wins of 2019.

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