Texas Tech football: The Red Raiders will beat Baylor if…

…Wells plays it straight

Far too often, Matt Wells tries to coach as if he’s trying to show off how smart or courageous he is as a coach.  And far too often that just makes him appear foolish as his gambles seem to repeatedly put his team at a disadvantage.

We are coming off of a week that saw two failed decisions in the kicking game cost the Red Raiders rather significantly in a 34-18 loss to TCU.  This week, for Tech to beat Baylor, all Wells may have to do is simply play it straight.

This is a game that most oddsmakers believe is within a two-point spread either way.  Thus, there is no reason for Wells to get cute, especially early.

It seems as if he likes to rely heavily on what the analytics tell him to do.  But Analytics can’t account for his personnel and he should actually use his own brain when it comes to making decisions this afternoon.

Thus, Wells shouldn’t get cute in the kicking game and try 37-yard field goals just because the analytics suggest.  Especially because he has now turned to backup kicker Jonathan Garibay, who has never attempted a field goal for the Red Raiders.

Likewise, Wells shouldn’t have to make risky fourth-down decisions, especially on offense.  That’s because the Baylor offense is so bad that he doesn’t need to try to coach as if 40 points will be needed for victory.   In fact, Baylor is averaging on 27.6 points per game and when you take out their 47 points against lowly Kansas, they’ve put up just 22.7 points per game against teams with a pulse.

Thus, Wells should just play this game straight.  If he can resist the desire to try to show how analytical and daring he is, it won’t put his team behind the 8-ball and it will likely lead to a Red Raider victory.