Texas Tech basketball: Tech’s potential path to the Final Four

The Round of 64

 No. 1 Baylor over No. 16 Hartford

There’s been only one upset ever pulled by a No. 16 seed and that was UMBC over Virginia in 2018.  That year, the Cavilers were without their best wing player, Deandre Hunter, who Red Raider fans certainly remember from the 2019 title game.

Unless there’s an unexpected COVID-19 positive, Baylor should be at full-strength for this one making it impossible to envision an upset.  After all, Hartford was not expected to be in the NCAA Tournament field this year before they pulled off an upset of top seed Vermont in the semifinals of the American East Tournament and finished that up by bringing home the tourney crown to qualify for the Big Dance.

In the end, the Bears will overwhelm the Hawks with their backcourt talent and 3-point shooting.  Look for Baylor to have no problems in this one.

No. 2 Ohio State over Oral Roberts

Not that long ago, Ohio State was in line for a No. 1 seed.  However, four-straight losses to close out the regular season took some of the shine off of the Buckeyes.

Still, they seemed to get their wheels back on in the Big 10 Tournament as they reached the finals by beating Michigan (which did earn a No. 1 seed) in the semis.  Look for their renewed confidence to push them past an over-matched Oral Roberts team.

However, it may be closer than some believe, especially if Oral Roberts gets hot from 3-point range.  As a team, the Golden Eagles shoot 39% from deep and hot shooting from beyond the arc and that can certainly neutralize a talent disparity between two teams.  Still, only eight times has a No. 15 seed beaten a No. 2 seed and that bodes well for Ohio State’s chances of advancing in this one.

No. 3 Arkansas vs. 14 Colgate

When Arkansas and Colgate meet, it will be as if the two teams are looking into a mirror.  That’s because both teams want to play at the fastest pace possible, both want to let it fly from 3-point range, and both want to apply tons of on-ball pressure on defense.

Don’t buy into the Colgate mirage though.  Yes, they are ranked in the top 10 of the NET rankings.  However, they have not played an opponent from outside the Patriot League meaning that they are far from battle-tested.

Meanwhile, Arkansas went 13-4 in the tough SEC.  What’s more, they have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games.  This one could be fun to watch, especially for those that like a frenetic pace and look for the Hogs to survive and advance.

No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 North Texas

Purdue has reached the Sweet 16 in each of the last three NCAA Tournaments.  Meanwhile, North Texas was just the No. 3 seed in the Conference USA Tournament.

But what could keep the Mean Green in this game is their pace of play and their defense.  They play at the 347th-slowest pace in the nation and they defend as if their lives depend on it.

Still, expect Purdue to fight through and pick up the win.  After all, the Boilermakers have twice beaten Ohio State as well as securing a pair of wins over Michigan State and notching a win over Wisconsin.  All the tough tests Purdue has experienced in the brutal Big 10 will prepare them for this rock fight and they will land the deciding punch in this one.

No. 12 Winthrop over No. 5 Villanova

Everyone loves the 12 vs. 5 upset and one is likely in store this weekend in the South Region.  That’s because Villanova comes into this game without star point guard Collin Gillespie, who has sustained a torn MCL in his knee.

Meanwhile, Winthrop is no joke.  The Eagles have won 15 games this year by double-digits (though none were against major conference opponents) and they are riding a wave of confidence after buzz-sawing their way through their conference tournament.

Each of these teams shoots well from deep with Nova averaging 9.3 makes from beyond the arc while Winthrop averages 8.5.  Whichever team has the edge in that aspect of the game will likely prevail but being as Nova is missing its best player, look for the Eagles to pull off the upset.

No. 6 Texas Tech over No. 11 Utah State

Much like the Arkansas and Creighton matchup, this game is a matchup of mirror images.  Both teams are built around a defenisve identity, both teams run the motion offense, and both are challenged when it comes to 3-point shooting.

While many people think that Neemias Queta, USU’s dynamic 7-foot center, could be the key to an upset, the fact remains that Tech has had plenty of experience playing against talented big men in the Big 12.  For instance, the Red Raiders swept Texas in the regular season despite the presence of future 6-foot-10 NBA big man Jericho Sims on the Longhorn roster.

What has really killed Tech this year has been hot-shooting guards and USU doesn’t have any player shooting over 40% from deep.  So as long as both teams play to their paper from 3-point range, look for the Red Raiders to grind out a win.

No. 7 Florida over No. 10 Virginia Tech

In what could be the toughest game of the weekend to pick in the South Region, two traditionally feisty major conference teams square off when Florida faces Virginia Tech.  This is a game that is going to essentially be a coin flip.

But what worries me about Virginia Tech is that they are not far removed from a COVID-19 pause.  In fact, they have played only three games since February 6th.  We’ve seen how extended pauses and interruptions can cause good teams to struggle to regain their mid-season form and that could be the case for the Hokies in this one.

Also, Florida has the better closer in this game in guard Tre Mann (15 p.p.g.) and he could be the difference in crunch time.  Look for the Gators to come up with just enough plays to topple Va. Tech in this one.

No. 8 North Carolina over No. 9 Wisconsin

The North Carolina brand took a bit of a hit this year as the Heels had to fight just to get into the tournament after a disappointing regular season.  But they have won four of their last six games as their young guards start to finally grow up.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin hasn’t won back-to-back games since the middle of January.  But they play some rugged defense as they rank No. 11 in adjusted efficiency in the nation.

But in an 8 vs. 9 game, it’s usually wise to lean towards the team that does something at a truly dominant level, and in this case, that would be the Heels.  UNC is tied for tops in the nation in rebounding rate by collecting 57.1% of all available rebounds.  Look for their trio of big men, all over 6-foot-10, to be the difference as they own the glass and down the Badgers.