Texas Tech basketball: Tech’s potential path to the Final Four
The Round of 32
No. 8 North Carolina over No. 1 Baylor
Baylor isn’t right after its prolonged COVID-19 pause. And that will come to bite them in the rear in the Round of 32 as they fall to North Carolina.
We’ve already talked about the Tarheels’ rebounding proficiency. And given Baylor’s lack of team height, it is not hard to envision Roy Williams’ team having an edge against a Bear team that has only one regular rotation member over 6-foot-8.
Against KU, the Bears were out-rebounded 48-28 in Baylor’s only loss of the regular season. And if that stat goes the way of the Hells in round two, especially by that large of a margin, the Bears will see their hopes of a Final Four dashed in the tournament’s first weekend.
No. 4 Purdue over No. 12 Winthrop
The Big 12 was absolutely loaded this year and that’s why Purdue might have been a bit overlooked. But this is an experienced NCAA team with four players on it from the 2019 Elite Eight run.
Meanwhile, Winthrop has played absolutely no one this year. While that won’t hurt them against a wounded Villanova team, it will be problematic against a battle-tested Purdue squad.
Matt Painter teams are tough and hard to kill. Look for intangibles like that to push them past a Winthrop team that has not been forced to face much adversity at all this season.
No. 6 Texas Tech over No. 3 Arkansas
When Tech faces Arkansas, tempo will be key. Fortunately, the Red Raiders are rather adept at controlling the pace of play.
Also, the Hogs are giving up 70.1 points per game, which is rather high. Of course, their pace of play could be responsible for that.
As a team, the Hogs only shoot 33.9% from deep. Thus, like Utah State, they don’t quite have the ability to exploit Tech’s greatest weakness.
We’ve seen up-tempo teams try to run Tech off the court before and it hasn’t worked all that often in the Beard era. The Red Raiders take excellent care of the basketball and that will give them the edge over the Hogs in a clash of styles.
No. 7 Florida over No. 2 Ohio State
In the second round, No. 2 Ohio State will find it tough to deal with a talented Florida team. That’s because the Gators feature 6-foot-11 Colin Castleton, who averages 12 points and 5.9 rebounds per game.
If Ohio State has one defensive flaw, it is on the interior and Castleton could have a huge impact on this matchup. After all, Ohio State is similar to Tech in that they don’t have a player in their regular rotation who is over 6-foot-8.
Also, the Buckeyes are far too dependant on two players, Duane Washington and E.J. Liddell, to do the bulk of their scoring. Meanwhile, Florida has four players averaging over 10 points per game.
In this game, Florida is able to own the glass and force Ohio State into too many turnovers (as Florida forces 14.5 turnovers per game) and the Gators advance to the Sweet 16. That would set up a rematch with the Red Raiders from the 2018 second round.