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Texas Tech basketball: Tech’s potential path to the Final Four

By Matthew Conner

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - FEBRUARY 27: A general view of a giant NCAA Championship bracket adorning the facade of the JW Marriott hotel in downtown Indianapolis on February 27, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - FEBRUARY 27: A general view of a giant NCAA Championship bracket adorning the facade of the JW Marriott hotel in downtown Indianapolis on February 27, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /
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A sign reminding people to social distance is posted in front of a promotional mural in downton Indianapolis as the city prepared to host the 2021 NCAA Division I basketball tournament on Wednesday, March 17, 2021. Indianapolis is hosting the entire tournament this year from the First Four to the National Championship game due to the coronavirus pandemic.Wildart Ncaa Indy 0317 Bjp 03
A sign reminding people to social distance is posted in front of a promotional mural in downton Indianapolis as the city prepared to host the 2021 NCAA Division I basketball tournament on Wednesday, March 17, 2021. Indianapolis is hosting the entire tournament this year from the First Four to the National Championship game due to the coronavirus pandemic.Wildart Ncaa Indy 0317 Bjp 03 /

Sweet 16 and Elite 8

No. 4 Purdue over No. 8 North Carolina

Purdue is one of the only teams in the nation that can combat UNC’s elite size with size of their own.  They have 6-foot-10 Trevion Williams (who averages over 15 points per game) and 7-foot-4 Zach Edey (who averages 8.9 points and 4.5 rebounds per game).

In a matchup with the Heels, Purdue would also be able to make life uncomfortable on UNC’s erratic guards.  Though the Tarheels can push the pace with their athletic ball-handlers, they don’t shoot the ball well enough from 3-point range (31% as a team) to make up for the times when their advantage in the post is neutralized, as would be the case against Purdue.

Purdue is also an effective defensive team ranking 23rd in the nation in the KenPom.com adjusted defensive efficiency ratings.   Thus, it will be hard for the Heels, who are just 53rd nationally in offensive efficiency according to KenPom.com, to score, especially considering that they will not have the size advantage in the post.

Purdue is similar to Texas Tech in that they are one of those teams that always seems to be in every game and they are a squad that few teams want to face in March given their tenacity.  Those intangibles will combine with their experience and their size inside to help take down the Tar Heels and send Matt Painter’s team to the Elite 8.

No. 6 Texas Tech over No. 7 Florida

Texas Tech and Florida would be an intriguing Sweet 16 matchup because it would pit two teams against one another that are probably better as a whole than the sum of their parts suggests they should be.  However, there’s one difference between Tech and Florida, consistency.

The Gators have dropped games to Kentucky, Mississippi State, and South Carolina, three teams that are not dancing this week.  Meanwhile, every one of Texas Tech’s losses has been at the hands of a team that is a top-4 seed in this year’s tournament.

What also favors Tech in this matchup is the fact that Florida is yet another team that does not shoot the ball well from outside.  In fact, as a team, they shoot only 35.7% from 3-point range, which is just slightly better than Tech shoots.  Therefore, the Red Raiders should not be overwhelmed by the Gators’ outside arsenal.

In the end, Tech is a more efficient team and playes better defense than the Gators.  Thus, Tech will previal in another close contest against Florida in the NCAA Tournament, just as they did in 2018.

Elite 8: No. 6 Texas Tech over No. 4 Purdue

Sometimes, games comedown to which team has a star step up and take over.  With a trip to the Final Four on the line, that’s what Mac McClung does for the Red Raiders as they take down Purdue.

McClung came to Texas Tech for moments such as this.  And Texas Tech brought McClung to Lubbock for moments such as this.  Both of those decisions pay off as the Red Raiders punch their ticket to the Final Four.

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It won’t be easy.  Purdue is a strong perimeter defensive team and all of their focus will be on Tech’s leading scorer.

However, we’ve already seen McClung put up 20 points against Baylor in Lubbock while being harassed by Davion Mitchell, arguably the best perimeter defender in America.   So there’s nothing that the Boilermakers can throw at him that he hasn’t seen already.

Of course, he’ll need help as every star does and that comes in the form of a big game from Kyler Edwards who does his best Davide Moretti impression and hits a pair of daggers from beyond the arc to break Purdue’s back.  That will completely alter the fan base’s perception of Edwards, who enters the tournament playing as well as he has all season.

Only three times has a No. 6 seed reached the Final Four with Kansas in 1988 as the only one to win it all.  But many believe that this year’s Texas Tech basketball team is stronger than most typical teams that are seeded as a No. 6 and that gives Red Raider fans hope that this year’s run through March could be another thrill ride to the season’s final weekend.  So here’s hoping that the South Region plays out like this and that Chris Beard and his team once again become the story of the NCAA Tournament.

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