Conference Realignment: PAC-12 decides not to expand for now

From almost the moment that the conference realignment carousel started back up about a month ago, many have theorized that Texas Tech’s best chance at keeping a seat at the adult table would be to join an expanded PAC 12.  However, that dream appears less likely after the PAC-12 announced on Thursday that it will not be looking to welcome any new members at this time.

"In an official statement, the conference said “Following consultation with our Presidents, Chancellors, and Athletic Directors, the PAC-12 Conference has made the decision not to pursue expansion of our membership at this time.  This decision was made following extensive internal discussion and analysis, and is based on the current competitive strength of an cohesiveness of our 12 universities.  It is also grounded in our confidence in our ability as a conference to best support our student-athletes and to grow and thrive both academically and athletically.”"

The key phrase from that statement comes at the end of the first sentence; “at this time”.  That leaves open the possibility of future expansion, perhaps as soon as 2024 when the league’s current media rights deal will expire.

What this decision does for Texas Tech and the rest of the remaining Big 12 members not headed to the SEC is that it makes it more likely that they will vote not to allow Texas and OU to leave the conference until 2025 when the Big 12’s media rights agreement comes to an end.  There had been some thought that the conference and the two deserting schools might reach a settlement that would let the Horns and Sooners leave early for a reduced exit fee.

But keep in mind that if the conference loses those two programs, it could trigger a clause in the media rights agreement with FOX that would lessen how much the conference earns from its top-paying media partner.  Thus, forcing those two schools to honor that agreement ensures the member institutions of a full payday from media partners for the next four years and gives the eight “leftovers” some time to chart their next course.

On the other hand, if the PAC 12 would have decided to expand and take under its wing a handful of Big 12 schools, then the Big 12 would likely have dissolved prior to 2025 and that would have absolved UT and OU from having to pay a hefty early exit penalty that has been reported to be around $76 million per university.

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Thursday’s news from the PAC-12 also makes it more likely that the Big 12 could itself look to expand in an attempt to stabilize its future.  But while those discussions have already begun and the Big 12 is already likely considering future members, so long as OU and Texas can be forced to stay in the league, it’s hard to imagine any new teams being added (though agreements that would begin in 2025-26 could be made).

In the meantime, Big 12 institutions not named Texas and Oklahoma have to work both sides of the equation.  They will be forced to work with their remaining bunkmates to try to cobble together the best version of the conference they can in case that scenario ends up being their only life raft in the wake of this conference realignment tidal wave.  However, these institutions also have to start working cloak and dagger on scenarios that best benefit themselves knowing that this is truly a free-for-all.

That’s why there still remains the possibility that the Big 12 won’t survive until 2025.  It’s been reported by some in the media that the SEC could continue to play Hungry Hungry Hippos and try to gobble up more teams in an attempt to combat the impact of the so-called “Alliance”, the loose agreement announced this week between the PAC-12, Big 10, and ACC, conferences that stats that those leagues will work and vote together on future matters including conference realignment, the College Football Playoff, and the future of NCAA football.

The point is that the PAC-12’s decision to sit still is not a death knell to Texas Tech’s chances of remaining relevant.  Rather, it is an example of a conference hitting the pause button just like the Big 12 did in 2016 when it decided not to expand after vetting as many as 16 potential schools to add.

Of course, given the way the Big 12’s fate has played out since then, the PAC 12 might not want to follow that model of inaction.  But for not, that’s exactly what it is going to do.