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Texas Tech football: What Texas Tech has to do to beat TCU

By Matthew Conner

Oct 2, 2021; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Henry Colombi (3) throws a pass during the first quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 2, 2021; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Henry Colombi (3) throws a pass during the first quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports /
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LUBBOCK, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 16: The saddle trophy is displayed on the sideline before the college football game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the TCU Horned Frogs on November 16, 2019 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
LUBBOCK, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 16: The saddle trophy is displayed on the sideline before the college football game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the TCU Horned Frogs on November 16, 2019 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images) /

The series between the Texas Tech football program and TCU has been a bit unusual in recent years with the road team winning six of the nine meetings since this rivalry was renewed after TCU joined the Big 12.  Here’s hoping that trend doesn’t continue tonight at Jones Stadium.

Overall, the Red Raiders hold the edge in this series 32-28-3.  But TCU is riding a two-game winning streak over the Red Raiders.  What’s more, the Frogs have won their last three games in the Hub City.

Not surprisingly, this series has featured plenty of close games.  In fact, since 2012, five of the games between Tech and TCU have been decided by three points or less.  And it would seem like another nip and tuck affair is in the cards tonight.

The ESPN.com Matchup Predictor gives the Red Raiders a 55.1% chance at coming out on top.  And as one examines these team’s season stats thus far, it’s easy to see why this game is essentially a toss-up.

When it comes to points scored per game, Tech is averaging 35.6 while TCU is putting up an even 35.  In points allowed, Tech is surrendering 30.8 while TCU is only slightly better at 27.3.

The two teams are also putting up almost the exact same number of total yards per game.  Tech has amassed 438.0 per contest thus far to TCU’s 433.3.

Meanwhile, when it comes to yards surrendered, Tech is giving up 387 to TCU’s 397.  Yeah, this game should be a battle.

It will be interesting to see how TCU comes out tonight.  If you subscribe to the wounded animal theory, then you are likely worried that the Frogs will put up one heck of a fight.

That’s because Gary Patterson’s team is coming off of back-to-back close losses to in-state rivals SMU and Texas.  Thus, many are expecting the Frogs to play as if their season is on the line as they try to avoid a three-game losing streak, something that hasn’t happened to their program since 2018 and something that TCU has endured only once since the start of the 2014 season.

What’s more, we’ve yet to see the Texas Tech football program prove under Matt Wells that it is capable of handling success.  Tech has not been able to win back-to-back Big 12 games during the Wells era, a disturbing trend for certain.

So to put it another way, most of the trends in this series and with these two programs point in TCU’s favor tonight.  But all trends eventually come to an end.  So let’s take a look at what the Red Raiders have to do to right the ship in this important rivalry.

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