Texas Tech football: What Texas Tech has to do to beat TCU

Oct 2, 2021; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Henry Colombi (3) throws a pass during the first quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 2, 2021; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Henry Colombi (3) throws a pass during the first quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nov 7, 2020; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs running back Zach Evans (6) is gang tackled by Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive back Thomas Leggett (16) and defensive back Thomas Leggett (16) at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 7, 2020; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs running back Zach Evans (6) is gang tackled by Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive back Thomas Leggett (16) and defensive back Thomas Leggett (16) at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports /

Win the game on 3rd down

Saying that winning on 3rd down is a key to a football game is as basic as saying that free throws are key to a basketball game or throwing strikes are key to a baseball game.  However, there might not be a more polarized 3rd down team in the nation than TCU and that will put a huge emphasis on 3rd down tonight.

On defense, TCU is surprisingly bad on 3rd down.  Allowing opponents to convert on 43.1% of their chances, the Frogs rank 9th in the Big 12.  Meanwhile, Tech is third in the Big 12 by converting at an impressive 47.4% clip on the game’s most crucial down.

But when you flip sides of the ball, the narrative changes for the Toads. They rank second in the Big 12 in 3rd down conversion percentage at 51.8%.  Meanwhile, Tech is just 7th in the league by allowing teams to convert 40.6% of the time.

Last season, Tech was only 3-16 on 3rd down on offense against TCU.  That can’t be the case tonight if Matt Wells’ team expects to win.

That’s where we go back to the ground game.  Tech has to be solid enough when running the ball on first and second down to put Colombi in manageable 3rd down situations and not ask him to continually convert by having to pick up seven or more yards.

Meanwhile, on defense, Tech is coming off of a game that saw the Red Raiders limit West Virginia to just 5-11 on 3rd down.  And in every game but the disastrous Texas game, Tech has held its opponent to less than 50% on 3rd down.

Tonight, what happens on 3rd down will tell the story of this game.  Of course, that’s as simple as saying that the sun will rise in the east and set in the west.  But that doesn’t make it any less true and Tech is going to have to come up big where there are opportunities to keep drives alive or get the defense off the field.