Texas Tech football: Statistics suggest Red Raiders have edge over Houston

Houston’s red-zone struggles could benefit Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are going to need to be solid defensively in the red zone this weekend, as always.  That’s something that defensive coordinator Tim Deruyter emphasizes.

Fortunately, Houston has the worst red-zone offense in the Big 12.  Despite getting into the red zone 20 times this year, tied for third-most in the conference, the Cougs have scored only 14 times.

That conversion rate of 70% is the lowest in the conference.  The Cougars have scored 12 TDs and two field goals to account for their red-zone scoring.

Twice against TCU, the Cougars gambled on a 4th-down after crossing the Frogs’ 20 only to come up short.  That followed the Rice game that saw the Cougars fail on another red-zone 4th-down.  They even had that scenario unfold once in their opener against UTSA.

What that shows is that Holgorsen isn’t afraid to roll the dice, much like McGuire.  In fact, they are two of the most aggressive head coaches in the conference in that regard.

Tech is tied for second in the Big 12 with 14 4th-down attempts.  Meanwhile, Houston has 11 thus far.

The difference is that Tech has succeeded on ten of those tries, the most in the conference.  On the other hand, Houston has just two 4th-down conversions.

So while Tech is converting at a 71.4% rate, Houston is doing so only doing so 18.1% of the time. And when those failures come in the red zone, it takes points off the board.

So pay close attention to how well the Red Raider defense holds up when Houston gets near the endzone.  That’s an area that has been a struggle for Holgorsen’s team and it could help swing this game in Tech’s favor.