Wreck'Em Red
Fansided

Texas Tech football: Statistical categories to watch as Red Raiders visit Baylor

By Matthew Conner

Nov 27, 2021; Waco, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders running back Tahj Brooks (28) is tackled by Baylor Bears defensive tackle Cole Maxwell (96) during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 27, 2021; Waco, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders running back Tahj Brooks (28) is tackled by Baylor Bears defensive tackle Cole Maxwell (96) during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
2 of 5
Next
Texas Tech’s quarterback Behren Morton (2) passes the ball to Texas Tech’s running back Tahj Brooks (28) against Houston in a Big 12 football game, Saturday, Sept, 30, 2023, at Jones AT&T Stadium.
Texas Tech’s quarterback Behren Morton (2) passes the ball to Texas Tech’s running back Tahj Brooks (28) against Houston in a Big 12 football game, Saturday, Sept, 30, 2023, at Jones AT&T Stadium. /

Texas Tech and Baylor are both highly aggressive on 4th-down

For most of our lives, 3rd down was considered the most important down in football.  But in the analytics era, 4th down is now where most games turn given how often teams try to keep drives alive even after coming up short on 3rd down.

This game on Saturday will see two of the Big 12’s most aggressive 4th-down teams square off.  If either one finds a way to have a distinct advantage in that area, it will tilt the scales significantly.

This year, Baylor and TCU are tied for the second-most 4th-down conversion attempts in the Big 12 with 16.  Meanwhile, Tech sits at No. 4 with 15.

However, there’s a significant difference in each team’s success rate.  Converting 73.3% of the time, McGuire’s team is No. 2 in the conference behind only Oklahoma.  Meanwhile, Baylor is No. 7 (again tied with TCU) at just 56.2%.

Last season, in a 45-17 Baylor win in Lubbock, both teams were 2-4 on 4th down so that aspect of the game didn’t come into play.  That likely won’t be the case this year, though, given that another blowout seems unlikely.

What might tell the 4th-down story is the average yards needed for each team.  Will one team have to ask more of its quarterback than the other by constantly needing five-plus yards to keep drives going while the other team is able to rely on the ground game in short-yardage 4th-down situations?

Remember that Baylor QB Blake Shaipen is a crafty player but he’s not necessarily a surgeon when throwing the ball.  Meanwhile, Tech’s Behren Morton is capable of the spectacular but he’s extremely green meaning that it is tough to fully trust his 4th-down decision-making.

However, last year, in the four games Morton started, Tech was actually 12-17 on 4th-down conversions when he was on the field.  Hopefully, that trend can continue this weekend because Tech may have to keep pace with a dangerous Baylor offense by rolling the dice on the new most important down in college football.

Home/Texas Tech Football