Numbers to know ahead of Texas Tech's home game against Baylor

Saturday, the Texas Tech football team will try to improve to 6-1 on the season by securing a home victory over in-state rival Baylor. This marks the first time this season that the Red Raiders will face either a conference team from Texas or a member of the original Big 12.

Of course, this game is massive for both teams although for different reasons. Tech is looking to stay atop the Big 12 standings by moving to 4-0 in league play. Currently, the Red Raiders are tied for first place with Iowa State and BYU.

This week, both the Cyclones and the Cougars are at home playing teams they should not have much trouble with. ISU takes on a free-falling UCF squad while BYU hosts an Oklahoma State team that has benched starting QB Alan Bowman and turned to Garret Rangel, a sophomore making his first start of 2024.

Thus, it seems likely that Tech will need to beat Baylor if the Red Raiders are going to keep pace atop the Big 12 race. However, Baylor has something to play for as well, even though the Bears are at the bottom of the conference standings.

Only the people inside the Baylor program would know how much the players in the locker room like head coach Dave Aranda and whether or not his uncertain future in Waco will motivate his team to put forth its best effort this weekend. However, when a team knows that its head coach is on the hot seat, it will often find a way to muster up at least one impressive performance to try to save its coach.

This week would be the perfect opportunity for Baylor to do that. Coming off of an open week (as is Tech) and playing an in-state rival that is having a breakout season thus far, the Bears likely see this game as their opportunity to show the rest of the conference that they are not dead yet.

So as we prepare for this intriguing showdown, let's see what the numbers say about how these teams stack up. And we'll start with a number that should make Texas Tech fans lick their chops.

Texas Tech should be able to run on Baylor

The first number to know is 161.5. That's the number of yards Baylor gives up per game on the ground this year. That's good for only 88th nationally.

Already this year against Baylor, Utah has run for 170 yards, Air Force has run for 193, BYU has run for 149, and Iowa State has run for 265. Thus, a Texas Tech offense that features the Big 12's leading rusher has to be excited to see what RB Tahj Brooks can do against the Bears.

Last season, Brooks set a then-career-high against Baylor when he ran for 170 yards on 31 carries as the Red Raiders dominated the line of scrimmage with their offensive line. Thus, it will be no surprise to see Tech try to follow that same recipe this weekend.

The Red Raiders are more balanced this year with better talent at wide receiver and a healthy QB. Thus, the offense won't be forced to run through Brooks as it was last forced to do last fall. This week, Tech will look to get its play-action passing game going, something that quarterback Behren Morton has executed well this season.

What's more, Baylor expects to be healthier along the defensive line than it was prior to its bye week. Therefore, Brooks might not slice right through the Bears like he did a season ago.

Still, No. 28 will get the ball early and often in this game (as he does just about every week). If Tech can do like so many of Baylor's other opponents have and punish the Bears on the ground this week, it will likely be another long day for the boys from Waco.

Texas Tech may have an advantage when it comes to turnovers

So far, one key to the Red Raiders' success this year has been their turnover margin. Averaging a +0.33 takeaways per game, Tech ranks 38th nationally in that category.

As this game unfolds, Tech fans should keep in mind the number -0.50 which is Baylor's turnover margin per game. That's good for only 97th in the country.

To put it another way, the Red Raiders have won the turnover battle in five of six games this season. Meanwhile, Baylor has lost the turnover battle three times this year and won it just once.

Both of these teams has lost five fumbles this year. That's good for only 99th in the country. Meanwhile, Morton has thrown only two picks while Baylor's starting QB, Sawyer Robertson, has thrown just three.

The difference is that Tech appears to have the more opportunistic defense. The Red Raiders have forced 11 turnovers thus far with Baylor having forced eight.

In the last three games in this series, the team that has won the turnover battle has won the game. If both teams play to their paper in that regard on Saturday, the Red Raiders could have an advantage.

Baylor struggles to convert in the red zone

Finally, keep the number 52.9% in the back of your mind on Saturday. That's Baylor's red-zone touchdown percentage, which is just 110th nationally.

This year, the Bears are struggling in the red zone overall. They are converting on just 76.4% of their opportunities, 109th-best in the country.

However, they aren't really getting inside their opponent's 20 very often. Their 17 red-zone trips this year rank just 110th in the nation.

Meanwhile, Tech's defense has been a bit of a bend-but-don't-break unit. Thus far, opponents have had 28 red-zone opportunities against the Red Raiders. However, they have scored a TD on just 57.1% of their opportunities. That's good for 66th in the country.

That's been a huge part of Tech's success in one-score games this year. Making the opposition settle for three points instead of seven is one way to come out on top in close contests.

This figures to be another tight one for the Red Raiders as Baylor has been within striking distance in each of its losses this year. So keep an eye on what happens when each team has a red-zone chance because that's where the numbers suggest Tech should have an edge.