Important statistics to know ahead of Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati

Texas Tech and Cincinnati meet tonight in Lubbock in a game that most believe will come down to the wire. Each of these two teams come into the game with 3-1 records but there are questions about both.

Tech started the year looking awful in the first two games. However, back-to-back wins over North Texas and Arizona State have seemed to steady the ship.

Still, it is worth wondering if this Texas Tech team is actually getting better or just looking better because it played two teams in Lubbock that it should have beaten in the first place. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has exceeded expectations thus far by winning three of its first four games but is that fool's gold considering that the Bearcats' three wins have come against teams that have a combined two wins between them?

Therefore, to try to get a better understanding of this game, let's look at what the statistics say. Here are some key numbers to know ahead of Texas Tech's second Big 12 game.

Cincinnati has the edge over Texas Tech when it comes to penalties

One aspect of the game that could play a huge role when two evenly matched teams face off is penalties. That's not good news for Texas Tech in this game.

Currently, the Red Raiders are 115th nationally in penalty yards per game. They are penalized an average of 76.7 yards each game. What's more, Tech has been penalized at least eight times in every game this season, and twice, the Red Raiders have suffered double-digit infractions in a game.

On the other hand, Cincinnati is one of the least penalized teams in the nation. They are ranked 32nd nationally in penalty yards per game at 42.2. The most penalties that the Bearcats have been endured in a game thus far is six.

Tonight, Tech will be lucky to get past the Bearcats if the penalty disparity between the two teams is massive. That will be a statistic to keep an eye on.

Neither Texas Tech nor Cincinnati has a good defense

Texas Tech fans already know that the Red Raider defense is statistically one of the worst in the country. Giving up 440.0 yards per game, it rankes 120th nationally.

However, Cincinnati's defense is almost as bad. The Bearcats are just 90th nationally in total defense by giving up 389.0 yards per game.

Cincy plays a version of the 3-3-5 cloud defense that Iowa State has made popular across the land. In fact, their defensive coordinator, Tyson Veidt, was with the Cyclones for the past eight seasons.

Still, the Bearcats have struggled on defense. Aside from holding a putrid Houston offense to 233 yards last week in a 34-0 win, they have allowed every other opponent this year to amass at least 380 yards of total offense. They even let FCS team Townson put up 438 yards.

Look to see if Tech can run the ball tonight. The 3-3-5 defense is supposed to invite teams to run the ball only to swarm the ball carrier with numbers. However, Cincy has given up 140.5 yards per game on the ground, 75th in the nation.

What these numbers suggest is that even though the Bearcats are running a scheme that's proven to be effective for other programs, they may not have the personnel to execute it just yet. Thus, the Red Raiders could find success when they have the football this evening.

Texas Tech needs to capitalize on Cincinnati's red-zone struggles

The Red Raider defense has been fairly stout in the red zone this year ranking 49th by allowing opponents to score on just 78.9% of their opportunities thus far. That needs to be an area where defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter's side of the ball is stout tonight because Cincinnati has struggled to convert inside the opposition's 20 this year.

The Bearcats have scored on only 76.4% of their red-zone trips through four games, which is only good for 107th in the country. In all, Cincy has had 17 red-zone opportunities but has only scored on 13 of them. What's more, they have scored just nine touchdowns on those 17 trips (52.9%).

One factor that has hurt Cincy in the red zone has been its kicking situation. Twice this year, the Bearcats have missed FGs on which the ball was snapped inside the red zone. Hopefully, their shortcomings inside the 20 will continue tonight.

Cincinnati is not overly aggressive on 4th down. Will that alter Texas Tech's strategy?

Toss-up games often put coaches in positions to have to make tough calls. Typcially, that happens on 4th down.

For the year, the Bearcats have gone for it only three times on 4th down. However, they are 3-3 so far to rank tied for first in the nation in 4th-down conversion percentage.

What's worth keeping in mind is that all three of those conversion attempts have been on 4th-and-1. Thus, the Red Raiders likely don't have to worry too much about the Bearcats being overly aggressive on 4th down.

Will that change how Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire approaches 4th down when his team has the football? Last week, he didn't go for it once on 4th down, only the second time in his Texas tech tenure that he hasn't done so.

That strategy paid off in what was a ball-control game against Arizona State last Saturday. Don't be surprised to see if McGuire is conservative again tonight.

Cincy isn't likely to put up a huge number on the scoreboard, at least not enough to force Tech to have to be overly aggressing on 4th down. What's more, the Bearcats don't have an explosive offense so it would make sense to give them long fields to have to drive. In other words, don't expect this game to come down to 4th down.