Why the Texas Tech football team can upset Arizona tonight in Tucson

Tonight, the Texas Tech football team will try to do something that has been rare during the Joey McGuire era, win a road game. Thus far, Tech is just 3-9 on opposing teams' campuses since McGuire took over and many experts think that trend will continue tonight when the Red Raiders take on Arizona in Tucson.

What's also troubling is that Tech has beaten only one good team on the road over the past two years. Last November, the Red Raiders went to Lawrence, Kansas, and picked up a gritty 16-13 win over No. 16 Kansas, which entered the game 7-2 on the season and 4-2 in Big 12 play.

That was the game where Behren Morton found Jerand Bradely for a 33-yard strike with just seven seconds to play to set up Gino Garcia's game-winning 30-yard field goal. It was by far Tech's best road win of theMcGuire era.

McGuire's first road win at Tech came in 2022 when his Red Raiders beat Iowa State 14-10 in Ames. That was a bad Cyclone team, though, as ISU would finish that season just 4-8 overall and 1-8 in conference play.

The only other true road game McGuire has won at Tech was last season's 39-14 drubbing of Baylor in Waco on a night when running back Tahj Brooks ran for a then-career-high 170 yards and a TD on 31 carries. However, Baylor was terrible last season as well going 3-9 overall and 2-7 in the Big 12.

For the Red Raiders to get back to being a conference title contender, road wins against the better teams in the conference are going to have to be regular occurrences. Tech has a chance to do that tonight against a 3-1 Arizona team that is 1-0 in conference action and which started the year ranked in the top 25.

Most people are betting against the Red Raiders and that's understandable given Tech's road woes the past three years. However, here are three reasons the Red Raiders could pull off the upset tonight in Tucson.

Arizona's offense hasn't been elite

Yes, the Red Raider defense has been one of the worst in the nation this year. Youth and injuries have left that side of the ball more than a little bit vulnerable in 2024.

The good news, though, is that the Arizona offense has not been firing on all cylinders as of late. Yes, QB Noah Fifita is one of the better passers in the Big 12, and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan might be the best pass catcher in the nation. However, even with those two stars in the fold, Arizona has had only a pedestrian offense thus far.

Overall, the Wildcats rank 56th nationally in total offense. However, that number is a bit inflated by their week-one outburst against a truly dreadful New Mexico team. In that game, the Cats put up 61 points and 627 yards in a shootout win.

Since then, though, Arizona has averaged just 347.6 yards per game of total offense. Now, in fairness, two of the three games since the opener have been against Kansas State and Utah, two good defensive squads.

Still, something has been off with the Arizona offense since the New Mexico game. What's more, McMillan has been somewhat quiet since a huge showing in the opener.

Against New Mexico, he put up an absurd 304 yards and 4 TDs on 10 catches. Since then, though, he's had 19 catches, 199 yards, and no TDs in the past three games.

Yes, there is always a reason to fear what any competent offense can do against the Red Raider defense but the reality is that Arizona has been merely average on offense in the past three games. If that trend continues tonight, the Red Raiders may just be able to keep pace.

Texas Tech should be able to run on the Arizona defense

One reason Texas Tech played so poorly in its only road game thus far, the 37-16 loss to Washington State that we'd all like to forget, was that running back Tahj Brooks didn't play with an arm injury. That left the Red Raider offense looking confused and uncertain of where to turn for key yards.

That night, Tech got just 59 yards from its running backs. Things should be different this evening with Brooks in the mix.

So far, Arizona is just 80th nationally in run defense. The Wildcats are giving up 150 yards per game on the ground which is good for only 9th-best in the Big 12.

In week one, New Mexico ran for 210 yards on Arizona. The Lobos averaged 5.5 yards per carry that night.

Kansas State ran for 235 yards on Zona in week three. However, 110 of those came from KSU quarterback Avery Johnson, something that Tech's QB Behren Morton won't duplicate. Still, K-State running back D.J. Giddens averaged 5.1 yards per carry on 17 attempts in that game.

Last week, Utah ran for only 84 yards against the Wildcats. However, keep in mind that the Utes were without their starting QB and were forced to play a freshman QB who had no business being on the field. Thus, Arizona was able to completely ignore the Utah passing game and throw all of its resources at trying to stop the run.

This Texas Tech offense is going to be the most balanced attack Arizona has seen all year. If the Cats try to load the box to stop Brooks, Morton and his receivers could make them pay. Thus, Arizona will have to play this game straight up and that should allow Brooks to feast which could help the Red Raiders control the game when they have the ball.

Arizona's offense is terrible on 3rd and 4th down

The final reason that Tech could spring the upset tonight is that Arizona's offense is awful on the most important downs, 3rd and 4th. That could help the suspect Red Raider defense get off the field.

It is hard to envision a team with a QB/WR combination as good as Fifita and McMillan would struggle to pick up first downs. However, that's been the case.

Entering today, Arizona ranks 100th in 3rd-down percentage on offense at just 34.7%. On 4th-down, they are even worse ranking 109th nationally at 40%.

That means that the Wildcats often struggle to sustain drives. Instead, they will look to pick up yards in chunks.

With 13 plays of 30 yards or more, Arizona ranks 25th in the country. That's frightening for a Tech defense that has given up 15 plays of 30 yards or more, tied for 9th-most in the nation.

Tonight, look to see if Tech tries to play a softer defense in terms of bringing pressure. Though it is against his nature, it would behoove defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter to try to keep his secondary in a shell to make the Wildcat offense sustain long drives, something that it hasn't done with consistencicy thus far. If Tech can make Arizona have to continually execute on third and fourth down, then the Red Raiders could find a way to come up with enough stops to prevail on the road tonight.